A new industry insight has revealed that Nigeria's High-Quality Cassava Flour (HQCF) sector is struggling to take off, held back by fundamental challenges in supply, cost, and product consistency. This is despite strong policy backing and clear industrial demand for the product.
Market Potential vs. Current Reality
The report from the Nigeria Cassava Investment Accelerator (NCIA), an initiative of the Lagos Business School, Pan-Atlantic University, paints a picture of a market with enormous potential that is currently underperforming. Current industry estimates show that actual HQCF inclusion in composite flour is only around one per cent, which translates to a market value of up to US$35 million.
However, the opportunity is far larger. The report states that if Nigeria achieves the 20 per cent substitution target proposed in relevant legislation, the market potential could scale up to a staggering US$1.18 billion by 2030. This would unlock significant value across the entire cassava supply chain and establish HQCF as a major driver of industrial growth.
Key Challenges Blocking Growth
The NCIA analysis identifies several critical barriers preventing the market from scaling. Industrial uptake has been limited not by a lack of demand, but primarily due to inconsistent and uncompetitive supply.
Buyers frequently cite three major deterrents:
- Inconsistent Product Quality: Many local processors struggle to meet industrial standards for granulation, moisture content, and shelf life, which are essential for large-scale baking.
- Price Volatility: HQCF has often been between 9% and more expensive than wheat flour. This is due to inefficient feedstock sourcing, underdeveloped logistics, and poor coordination across the value chain.
- Fragmented Supply Chains: The lack of standardized processing infrastructure and investment in quality control makes reliable, large-scale supply difficult.
These issues stem from limited investment, fragmented production systems, and a lack of standardized infrastructure. Without achieving scale or cost-efficiency, processors cannot offer a truly competitive product, which undermines both buyer confidence and national policy ambitions.
The Path Forward: Innovation and Investment
The report argues that unlocking this billion-dollar market will require more than just regulation. It calls for targeted innovation across the entire value chain, from farming to processing technologies and input supply models.
One promising scalable entry point is the cassava chips market. Chips offer improved shelf life, enable pre-processing closer to farms, and simplify logistics, thereby reducing some of the biggest friction points in the current system.
There are already encouraging signs. Processors like Sofari are investing in scalable chip-based approaches to improve handling, drying, and product consistency. Furthermore, research institutions such as the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA) are advancing cassava varieties better suited specifically for flour production.
Ultimately, the report concludes that realizing the full market potential will demand greater coordination, increased scale, and sustained investment to translate these innovations into real-world impact. The opportunity is clear, but without structural shifts on the supply side, even the strongest policy push will not be enough to turn HQCF into Nigeria's next major industrial success story.
