Nigeria's aviation and travel industry is facing heightened tension and anticipating a significant downturn following an announcement by the United States government. The U.S. is set to enforce new visa restrictions on Nigerian nationals starting 1 January 2026, a move experts say will severely impact passenger numbers on lucrative transatlantic routes.
Direct Flights and Passenger Numbers at Risk
The new measures, affecting both immigrant and non-immigrant visa categories, have already sown uncertainty among potential travelers. Aviation analysts predict that reduced approval rates and longer processing times will directly lead to a sharp decline in flight demand. Currently, two U.S. carriers operate direct scheduled services to Nigeria: Delta Air Lines and United Airlines.
According to official data from the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), these two airlines jointly operated 17 weekly frequencies between Nigeria and the U.S. in 2024, sharing a total of 207,340 passengers.
Delta Air Lines operates 14 weekly flights into Lagos from Atlanta and New York, carrying approximately 160,399 passengers in 2024. United Airlines operates three weekly flights from Washington–Dulles to Lagos, transporting 47,340 passengers last year.
Industry Experts Warn of Economic Fallout
Gbenga Onitilo, Managing Director of Travelden (a subsidiary of Finchglow Holdings Ltd), explained the dire consequences in an interview. He stated that visa uncertainty, reduced demand, and elongated processing cycles would directly hit passenger load factors and weaken the route economics for airlines.
"Transatlantic flights are capital-intensive and rely on strong, predictable passenger flows, particularly from business travellers, students and members of the diaspora," Onitilo emphasised. He warned that any sustained drop could force airlines to reconsider flight frequencies, aircraft deployment, or even the long-term sustainability of the routes.
Onitilo drew a comparison with Mali, which recently faced similar U.S. visa sanctions. He noted that Mali's situation was resolved through strategic diplomacy and reciprocal measures, coupled with addressing technical issues like identity verification. "Visa sanctions are not lifted by outrage or silence. They are resolved through coherent diplomacy, reciprocal signalling and fixing the trigger points," he declared, highlighting weaknesses in Nigeria's diplomatic engagement.
Travel Agencies and Nigerian Economy to Suffer
Olumide Ohunayo, Director of Research at Zenith Travels, added that Nigerian carriers and travel agencies would be the major losers, especially since no Nigerian airline currently operates direct flights to the U.S. He noted that foreign carriers have broader networks to absorb the shock.
Ohunayo projected a reduction in passengers flying to the U.S. and a consequent drop in the aviation sector's contribution to Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). "Also, the travel agencies’ finances will be hit hard," he said. He urged diplomatic engagement, stating, "There is a need to engage the U.S. to ensure that we get a favourable part of the stick."
The U.S. Mission in Nigeria confirmed the restrictions would take effect at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on 1 January 2026, under Presidential Proclamation 10998, titled 'Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States'. Nigeria is among 19 countries affected, including Angola, Ghana, Venezuela, and Zambia.
