Global trade recorded a notable upswing in 2025, driven largely by strong manufacturing activity, which expanded by 11 per cent, even as volatile commodity prices led to uneven performance across sectors. This information comes from the latest Global Trade Update, ‘Global Trade Growth Continues, but Fragility Rises’, issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
Manufacturing Leads Trade Expansion
The report highlights a year in which industrial goods, particularly machinery, were the main driver of global trade expansion. It also points to diverging trends across commodities, with gains in some areas offset by weakness in energy-related trade. The report notes that manufacturing performed well in 2025, whereas commodity-linked sectors experienced mixed results due to price fluctuations.
Agricultural Trade and Commodity Volatility
Agricultural trade also expanded, supported by increased activity in cereals, animal products, coffee, tea, and spices. The rise in global coffee prices notably contributed to gains in agricultural trade, although the pace of growth decelerated towards the end of the year. Overall, trade in natural resources declined, mainly due to softer energy prices. However, precious metals provided some support to certain parts of the base metals market.
According to UNCTAD, fluctuations in commodity prices significantly influenced global trade patterns during this period. The report further noted that trade growth is expected to slow considerably this year, weighed down by geopolitical uncertainties, persistent inflationary pressures and rising trade costs, with only a few sectors expected to see trade expansion.
UNCTAD also stated that global trade growth rose by about two per cent quarter-over-quarter (QoQ).
