The Nigerian business environment maintained an expansionary path for a full year but experienced a noticeable slowdown in December 2025, according to a new report. The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) revealed that while the growth trend that began early in 2025 continued, performance moderated in the last month of the year.
Key Findings from the December 2025 BCM Report
The report, released on 7 January 2026, indicated that business conditions had improved for 12 consecutive months. However, the pace of this expansion softened in December. A major factor was a sharp increase in the cost of doing business, which jumped to 61.6 index points from 54.3 points in November 2025.
The NESG BCM, a survey-based gauge of business sentiment, identified several critical headwinds. Persistent financing constraints, unreliable power supply, and policy uncertainty were highlighted as significant dampeners on business performance and confidence. Additionally, high commercial property costs and elevated exchange rate pressures added to the challenges.
Sectoral Performance: Agriculture Leads, Others Decline
A detailed look at the economy shows that all five major economic activities remained in the expansionary zone. However, three sectors saw a decline compared to November 2025.
The agriculture sector posted the most impressive gain, surging by 9.6 points to reach 112.9 index points. The manufacturing sector also recorded a marginal increase, reaching 117.9 points.
In contrast, other sectors experienced setbacks:
- Trade declined to 123.8 points.
- Non-manufacturing fell to 101.8 points.
- Services dropped to 104.3 points.
The report noted that the current business performance index stood at 112 points in December 2025. This was down from 113.3 points in November but still 11.2 points higher than its level in December 2024.
Subdued Demand and a Cautious Outlook
The moderation was broad-based, affecting key sub-indices tracked by the BCM. These include general business situation, production, financial conditions, supply orders, and access to credit. The report interpreted this broad-based moderation as evidence of a more cautious business stance and subdued consumer demand in the economy.
In a related development, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) provided a contrasting but complementary data point. The CBN reported that its composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December 2025 stood at 57.6 index points. This figure, which is well above the 50-point threshold for expansion, represents the strongest activity momentum recorded in about five years, suggesting underlying economic resilience despite the short-term challenges highlighted by the NESG.
