Nigeria could achieve a $1 trillion economy without making its citizens richer, according to prominent economist Bismarck Rewane. The CEO of Financial Derivatives Company made this assertion during a recent economic outlook presentation, warning that the country's growth trajectory may not translate into improved living standards for the average Nigerian.
The $1 Trillion Target: A Double-Edged Sword
Rewane's comments come as the Nigerian government, under President Bola Tinubu, has set an ambitious goal of growing the economy to $1 trillion in the coming years. However, Rewane cautioned that this target, while impressive on paper, could mask underlying inequalities and fail to address the needs of the population.
"We can get to a $1 trillion economy without making Nigerians richer," Rewane said during the presentation. He emphasized that the focus should not solely be on aggregate GDP figures but on per capita income and the distribution of wealth.
Per Capita Income: The Real Measure
Nigeria's GDP per capita currently stands at approximately $2,000, ranking among the lowest in the world despite the country's large economy. Rewane argued that simply expanding the GDP without corresponding growth in per capita income would leave the majority of citizens in poverty.
"The key metric is per capita income, not just headline GDP," Rewane stressed. "If the economy grows but the population grows faster, or if the benefits are concentrated in the hands of a few, then the average Nigerian will not feel the impact."
Job Creation and Productivity: The Path Forward
To ensure that economic growth translates into improved welfare, Rewane called for policies that promote job creation, particularly in the real sector. He noted that Nigeria's unemployment rate, which stands at over 4.1% according to the National Bureau of Statistics, remains a major challenge.
"We need to create jobs that are productive and sustainable," Rewane said. "This requires investment in infrastructure, education, and healthcare, as well as an enabling environment for businesses to thrive."
Structural Reforms and Diversification
Rewane also reiterated the need for structural reforms to diversify the economy away from oil dependence. He pointed out that Nigeria's reliance on crude oil exports makes it vulnerable to global price shocks and limits the potential for inclusive growth.
"Diversification is not just about increasing non-oil exports; it's about building a resilient economy that can provide for its citizens in a sustainable manner," he explained. "Agriculture, manufacturing, and services must be developed to create value and employment."
Government's Response and Policy Implications
The Nigerian government has acknowledged these concerns and has rolled out several initiatives aimed at boosting economic growth and reducing poverty. The Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning has highlighted plans to improve the ease of doing business, attract foreign investment, and implement social safety nets.
However, analysts argue that these measures must be implemented effectively and transparently to yield tangible results. "The government's intentions are good, but the execution has often been lacking," said another economist who attended the presentation.
Conclusion: Beyond GDP Growth
As Nigeria pursues its $1 trillion economy target, the warning from Rewane serves as a crucial reminder that economic growth must be inclusive. Policymakers must prioritize policies that raise per capita income, create jobs, and reduce inequality. Otherwise, the country risks achieving a milestone that does not benefit the majority of its citizens.
