Nigeria's external economic position has recorded a significant milestone, with data showing the country is moving closer to becoming a net exporter of refined petroleum products. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reported a current account surplus of $3.42 billion for the third quarter of 2025, a figure underpinned by a dramatic rise in the export of fuels processed within the country.
Surplus Narrows Amidst Export Boom
According to the CBN's Q3 2025 Balance of Payments Highlights released recently, the recorded surplus, while substantial, represents a 41.14% decrease from the $5.81 billion surplus posted in the second quarter of the year. It also falls below the $5.78 billion achieved in the same period in 2024, highlighting ongoing vulnerabilities in the nation's external reserves.
The apex bank attributed the continued surplus primarily to higher crude oil and refined petroleum product exports. However, increased outflows in other areas, including services and primary income, alongside exchange-rate adjustments, applied pressure that reduced the overall surplus size.
Crude and Refined Product Exports Fuel Growth
The performance was driven by a dual boost from the oil sector. Firstly, crude oil exports rose by 10.31%, climbing from $7.66 billion in Q2 to $8.45 billion in Q3 2025. This improvement is linked to enhanced pipeline security, reduced oil theft, and more stable production efforts by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) and other operators.
More strikingly, exports of refined petroleum products skyrocketed by 44.03%. They jumped from $1.59 billion in the second quarter to $2.29 billion in the third quarter. Economic analysts directly connect this surge to the increased operational capacity of domestic refineries, most notably the ongoing ramp-up at the privately-owned Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
A Turning Point for a Former Importer
This export growth signifies a profound structural shift for an economy historically dependent on imported fuel. Concurrently, Nigeria's imports of refined products fell by 12.7%, from $1.89 billion to $1.65 billion over the same period. The combination of rising exports and falling imports is a key development in the Federal Government's long-term goal to end fuel import reliance.
While the oil sector provided a boost, the economy continued to rely on strong diaspora remittances, estimated at $5.50 billion, to cushion the impact of weaker balances in other current account components. These inflows helped maintain the overall surplus position.
The third-quarter data arrives amid broader reforms, including foreign exchange adjustments and the removal of fuel subsidies. While the surge in refined fuel exports points to meaningful progress, the quarter-on-quarter contraction of the surplus underscores the need to consolidate these gains. Sustaining a robust external position will require locking in oil production stability, managing non-oil import growth, and further diversifying the export base.
In a related development poised to reshape the domestic market, the Dangote Refinery recently unveiled a new supply arrangement. As reported, the refinery has introduced a 10-day credit facility for petrol dealers, backed by bank guarantees, alongside free direct delivery to registered outlets. This move is expected to ease operational pressures on distributors and further solidify the refinery's role in the national energy landscape.
