For the third consecutive month, Nigeria's headline inflation has maintained an uptick trend, rising from 15.69 percent in April 2026 to 15.93 percent in May. This trend is the direct opposite of the inflation movement in 2025, when it experienced nine months of consistent decline following the rebasing of the consumer price index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The reversal of the deceleration started in March 2026 when the headline inflation rose from 15.06 percent in February to 15.38 percent, the first rise in 11 straight months. The upwards movement continued in April as the rate rose to 15.69 percent and now to 15.93 percent in May.
The major drivers of inflation remain food and beverages, transportation, housing, energy, health and education, which collectively account for about 87 percent of headline inflation. This highlights the reality that the inflation burden is concentrated in the necessities consumed by ordinary Nigerians.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had dismissed inflation hike scare during its May 2026 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, describing the resumed acceleration as transitory and propelled by external shocks. The CBN had then adopted what it called a cautious hold, retaining the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.5 percent, shunning the temptation to resume tightening. The Bank had expressed confidence in the ability of the economy to weather the storm, given the stability of the exchange rate, strong external reserves and the ongoing fiscal reforms by the government.
In his comments, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, said the recent diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East and the moderation of crude oil prices from about $90 per barrel to approximately $83 per barrel provide grounds for cautious optimism. "If geopolitical tensions continue to ease and supply chain conditions improve, inflationary pressures could begin to moderate from the third quarter of 2026.
"For now, the inflation uptick appears to be more of an external shock phenomenon and domestic structural headwinds than a reflection of domestic macroeconomic instability. The policy priority should therefore be to tackle the structural cost drivers of inflation, particularly insecurity, food supply constraints, transportation costs and energy prices. These are the pressure points that matter most to citizens' welfare and business competitiveness", he added.
The May inflation figures are well above the CBN and Fitch forecasts for 2026, which were 12.94 percent, predicated on declining food and energy prices and 15.5 percent forecast, predicated on the Middle East crisis, energy and trade shocks, respectively.
Although the May 2026 consumer price index (CPI) report released yesterday shows that the headline inflation rate on a month-on-month basis dropped to 1.75 percent, 0.39 percent lower than the rate recorded in April 2026. It suggests the current intensity of the inflation is softening.
Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 16.82 percent in May on a year-on-year basis. On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 1.94 percent, up by 0.92 percent compared to April when it was 1.03 percent.
Food inflation on its part also experienced an upward trend, moving from 16.06 percent in April to 16.96 percent. On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate was 2.98 percent, a 0.65 percent decline compared to the April figure, which was 3.63 percent.
The three major contributors to the headline inflation were food and non-alcoholic beverages at 6.38 percent, restaurants and accommodation services at 2.06 percent, and transport at 1.7 percent. The least contributors according to the report were recreation/sport/culture at 0.05 percent, alcoholic beverages/tobacco/narcotics at 0.06 percent and insurance/financial services at 0.07 percent.
Yobe State recorded the highest inflation movement at 24.94 percent on a year-on-year basis, followed by Anambra at 23.29 percent, and Sokoto at 22.6 percent. Niger state, at a headline inflation rate of 3.07 percent, Plateau (7.1 percent) and Edo (7.73 percent) recorded the slowest rise in headline inflation year-on-year.
