In a significant forecast for the nation's financial future, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Nigeria has projected that the country's economy will expand by 4.3 per cent in the year 2026. This optimistic prediction was unveiled in the firm's annual Economic Outlook 2026 report, released on Tuesday, 7 January 2026.
Foundation for Growth: Stability and Reform
The report, themed "Turning Macroeconomic Stability into Sustainable Growth," bases its positive outlook on two critical assumptions. It anticipates that inflation will continue to moderate gradually and that the Naira will remain broadly stable throughout the year. PwC analysts highlighted that Nigeria made notable strides in achieving macroeconomic stability during 2025, following key monetary and foreign exchange reforms initiated by the government.
These reforms led to observable improvements: inflation rates began to ease, conditions in the exchange-rate market stabilised, and the country's external reserves showed signs of strengthening. The current economic outlook examines how these hard-won gains are reshaping the business landscape for companies, investors, and financial markets as Nigeria moves deeper into 2026.
Seven Key Themes Shaping 2026
PwC Nigeria's analysis identifies seven pivotal issues expected to dictate the pace and direction of economic performance in the coming year. Business leaders and policymakers must navigate these interconnected themes:
- Monetary Policy Effectiveness: Continued focus on central bank strategies.
- Fiscal Sustainability and Reform Execution: Managing public finances and implementing planned reforms.
- Global Economic and Geopolitical Dynamics: Navigating international trade and political shifts.
- Domestic Security and Social Pressures: Addressing internal challenges that impact economic activity.
- Uneven Sectoral Growth: Recognising that expansion will not be uniform across all industries.
- Consumer Affordability Constraints: The ongoing impact of purchasing power on market demand.
- The Expanding Digital Economy and AI: The transformative role of technology and artificial intelligence.
Leadership Perspectives and Business Imperatives
Sam Abu, the Country Senior Partner at PwC Nigeria, commented on the report's significance. He stated that the Outlook provides a forward-looking analysis of key indicators and what they signal for the economy and corporate leaders. "Nigeria has achieved improved macroeconomic stability over the past year," Abu noted. "The focus now is how that stability is translated into sustainable economic growth, and how businesses position for 2026."
Echoing this sentiment, Olusegun Zaccheaus, Partner and Chief Economist at PwC Nigeria, provided deeper insight. He pointed out that globally, growth is projected at around 3.1%, while merchandise trade growth slows to about 0.5%. This scenario keeps oil prices, capital flows, and access to foreign inflows as crucial channels influencing Nigeria's growth and foreign exchange liquidity.
Domestically, Zaccheaus explained that improved monetary effectiveness has reduced volatility and clarified pricing signals. However, fiscal pressures, security challenges, and weak household purchasing power continue to shape outcomes across different sectors. He emphasised that growth is more likely to remain concentrated in services and selected capital-intensive sectors, making disciplined capital allocation and smart sector selection paramount for success.
In light of this analysis, PwC Nigeria outlined practical steps for business leaders in 2026. These imperatives include making selective investments in attractive sectors, engaging in scenario planning for potential macroeconomic shocks, adapting business models for greater resilience, accelerating digital transformation, and strengthening regulatory and tax compliance frameworks as government reforms move from design to execution.
