The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has downplayed concerns over the United States' decision to impose a 12.5% tariff on imports from Nigeria, stating that the measure is unlikely to significantly affect the country's economy. In a statement released on Sunday, the think tank's Chief Executive Officer, Muda Yusuf, explained that the dominance of tariff-exempt petroleum exports and the relatively small share of Nigerian exports destined for the US would cushion the impact.
US Tariff Announcement and Rationale
On Friday, the United States announced a plan to impose a 12.5% tariff on imports from Nigeria, citing the country's failure to prohibit the importation of goods produced with forced labour. The US government said the move is part of a new trade measure targeting nations that have not addressed forced labour issues in their supply chains. According to CPPE, the tariff is part of a broader policy shift by the US aimed at protecting domestic industries and strengthening manufacturing competitiveness.
The think tank noted that the new tariff regime is a continuation of the reciprocal tariff policy introduced under former US President Donald Trump, though it is now implemented under a different legal framework. “CPPE’s assessment is that the new tariff regime represents a continuation of the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff policy, albeit under a different legal framework,” Yusuf said. “Following the judicial invalidation of the earlier reciprocal tariffs, the current measures appear to have been restructured under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act, with allegations relating to forced labour providing the statutory basis for their implementation.”
Yusuf added that although the legal basis has changed, the policy objective remains essentially to protect US domestic industries, strengthen American manufacturing competitiveness, and advance broader US trade and economic interests.
Why Nigeria's Exposure Is Limited
CPPE emphasised that the direct economic implications for Nigeria would be limited because most of the country’s exports to the US are petroleum products, which are exempt from the tariffs. “Nigeria’s exports to the United States are heavily concentrated in crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and other petroleum products, which account for more than 80% of Nigeria’s merchandise exports to the US,” the statement read. “These products have been exempted from the tariff measures, leaving the bulk of Nigeria’s exports unaffected.”
Furthermore, the US is not Nigeria’s largest export destination. According to CPPE, Nigeria’s first-quarter 2026 merchandise trade data shows that exports to the US accounted for only 5.56% of total exports, valued at about ₦21.6 trillion. By comparison, India accounted for 13.09% of Nigeria’s exports during the period, followed by France with 9.29%, the Netherlands with 9.22%, and Spain with 7.68%, placing the US as the country’s fifth-largest export market.
These trade patterns significantly reduce Nigeria’s exposure to the new tariff measures. CPPE expects only modest impacts on Nigeria’s export earnings, foreign exchange receipts, and macroeconomic performance. “While some non-oil exporters, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing, may experience reduced competitiveness in the US market, the overall impact on Nigeria’s export earnings, foreign exchange receipts, and macroeconomic performance is expected to be modest,” the body noted.
Broader Implications for Global Trade
CPPE also highlighted that the development reflects a broader shift in global trade towards protectionism and the greater use of trade policy to advance domestic economic objectives. The think tank described the new US tariff as part of an increasingly fragmented and protectionist global trading environment.
To mitigate the impact, CPPE urged the Nigerian government to accelerate export diversification, improve manufacturing competitiveness, deepen domestic value addition, and maximise opportunities under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The group also called on the government to strengthen labour standards, improve supply chain transparency, and engage the United States through diplomatic and trade channels to minimise the impact on affected exporters.
Recommendations for Nigeria
CPPE said the greater challenge for Nigeria lies in navigating the evolving global trade landscape rather than immediate export losses. “Overall, while the new US tariffs have generated understandable concern, their direct economic implications for Nigeria should not be overstated,” Yusuf concluded. “The greater challenge lies not in the immediate loss of export opportunities, but in navigating an increasingly fragmented and protectionist global trading environment.”
The think tank’s assessment provides a measured perspective amid broader anxieties about the US tariff, reinforcing the need for Nigeria to pursue structural reforms and trade diversification to build long-term resilience in global markets.
