New official data has provided a clear snapshot of Nigeria's evolving refining landscape, highlighting the modest but crucial role played by smaller modular plants alongside the behemoth Dangote Refinery. According to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), only three modular refineries actively produced diesel in December 2025, collectively meeting a small fraction of national demand.
Modular Refineries: The Current Contributors
The NMDPRA's factsheet, released on Saturday, January 17, 2026, showed that Waltersmith, Edo, and ARADEL refineries were the sole modular producers of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), commonly known as diesel, in the last month of 2025. Together, they supplied a combined average of 0.392 million litres per day.
This output, while significant for the operators, represents just 2.4% of Nigeria's estimated daily diesel consumption of 16.4 million litres. The data underscores the long road ahead for the modular sector in becoming a major stabilising force for the country's energy supply.
Performance Breakdown of the Top Three
ARADEL Modular Refinery in Ogbele, Rivers State, emerged as the dominant player. With an installed capacity of 11,000 barrels per day, it operated at a 53.89% utilisation rate. It supplied 0.289 million litres of AGO daily, accounting for over 70% of the total modular diesel output for the period.
Edo Modular Refinery (EMR) in Ologbo, Edo State, recorded the highest utilisation rate among its peers at 85.43%. However, its smaller 6,000 barrels per day capacity limited its daily contribution to 0.052 million litres of diesel.
Waltersmith Modular Refinery in Ibigwe, Imo State, operated only its Train 1 unit during December due to the ongoing commissioning of Train 2. With a 5,000 barrels per day capacity, it produced 0.051 million litres per day at a 63.24% utilisation rate, and its production was limited to just 13 days in the month.
Dangote Refinery Ramps Up Petrol Production
While modular refineries focus on diesel, the Dangote Refinery is making significant strides in petrol production. NMDPRA data reveals a dramatic surge in its output in December 2025. The refinery's domestic supply of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) increased by nearly 65%, rising from 19.47 million litres per day in November to an average of 32.012 million litres per day in December.
This increase was driven by a higher capacity utilisation, which peaked at 71% during the month. This boost from Dangote helped raise Nigeria's total daily PMS supply to 74.2 million litres, up from 71.5 million litres per day in November, edging closer to the refinery's initial target of 50 million litres per day for the month.
The competition in the market is also intensifying. Reports indicate that private depot operators have reduced their diesel prices to about N958 per litre, slightly undercutting Dangote Refinery's ex-depot price of N960 per litre, signalling a positive trend for consumers.
Industry analysts conclude that for modular refineries to move beyond their current marginal role, significant capacity expansion and the full commissioning of planned units are essential. Until then, the Dangote Refinery remains the central game-changer in Nigeria's quest for refined products self-sufficiency.
