Nigeria's aggressive drive towards off-grid electricity solutions, especially solar mini-grids and standalone renewable systems, is making tangible progress in powering underserved and rural communities. However, energy analysts are sounding the alarm that this progress is critically insufficient when measured against the nation's explosive population growth, persistent financing challenges, and massive infrastructure deficits.
Measurable Gains Mask a Vast National Crisis
In an interview with The Guardian, energy analyst Prof. Dayo Ayoade acknowledged the Rural Electrification Agency (REA) has recorded notable achievements, particularly in 2025. He pointed out that the agency's statistics likely show over a million households and thousands of small businesses benefiting from reduced energy poverty due to off-grid expansion.
"If you look at the REA, it has made progress. I am sure their website talks a lot about their progress in 2025 statistics," Ayoade stated.
Yet, he argued that these headline figures obscure the true scale of Nigeria's electricity access crisis. When the cumulative impact of off-grid electrification over the past decade or more is considered, the effect remains marginal on a national level.
"These numbers are fine, but you must consider those numbers altogether since the electrification policy started... I do not think we have lifted more than up to 10 million people out of energy poverty," Ayoade explained.
He provided a stark comparison: even if authorities are credited with lifting 10 million households out of energy poverty over the last two decades, this figure pales in comparison to Nigeria's population of over 200 million. Estimates indicate that more than 90 million Nigerians still live without access to electricity.
Off-Grid: A Pragmatic Response, Not a Silver Bullet
The expansion of off-grid solutions is widely seen as a practical response to the chronic failures of Nigeria's national grid, which suffers from repeated collapses and chronic underinvestment. Solar mini-grids are increasingly deployed in areas where extending the main grid is technically difficult or commercially unviable.
However, Prof. Ayoade cautioned against viewing these systems as a perfect solution. While they can be cheaper and more reliable by avoiding the fragile national grid, long-term cost efficiency still favors a robust, well-managed grid system.
"If you had all the money in the world, you would be better off building a proper grid system. It would be cheaper in the long run because of the way power is distributed," he noted. "But for our particular situation right now, solar mini-grids may well be cheaper and perhaps a bit more reliable."
REA Intensifies Efforts Amid Daunting Challenges
Electricity market analyst Lanre Elatuyi highlighted that the REA has ramped up its efforts to close the energy access gap under its current leadership, primarily through large-scale programmes backed by international donors.
"Significant efforts have been made and more is currently being made by the REA to close the energy access gap," Elatuyi said.
He specifically pointed to the Distributed Access Through Renewable Energy Scale-Up (DARES) programme. This initiative, led by the REA and funded by the World Bank, aims to provide electricity access for approximately 17.5 million Nigerians using renewable energy solutions.
Elatuyi added that the agency is deepening collaboration with state governments, having signed several memoranda of understanding (MoUs) to expand access through partnerships involving states and renewable energy service companies (RESCOs).
Despite these concerted efforts, analysts agree that the fundamental hurdles of rapid population growth, weak financing structures, and poor implementation strategies mean Nigeria's journey to universal electricity access remains a long and arduous one. The off-grid push is providing vital relief, but it is racing against a tide of growing demand and systemic constraints.
