Nigeria Forfeits N1.76 Trillion in Oil Revenue After Missing OPEC Quota
Nigeria has suffered a staggering revenue loss of approximately N1.76 trillion in potential crude oil earnings due to its failure to meet the production quota set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) between January 2025 and January 2026. This significant financial shortfall underscores deep-seated issues within the nation's oil sector, despite relatively favorable global oil prices during much of this period.
Persistent Production Deficits Throughout 2025
According to official figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, the country consistently fell short of its mandated production target of 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) in nine out of twelve months in 2025. Nigeria managed to exceed its quota only three times during the entire year: in January with 1.54 mbpd, June with 1.51 mbpd, and July with 1.51 mbpd. These modest surpluses ranged between 10,000 and 40,000 barrels per day, providing minimal relief from the overall deficit trend.
The production declines were recorded in February (1.47 mbpd), March (1.40 mbpd), April (1.49 mbpd), May (1.45 mbpd), August (1.43 mbpd), September (1.39 mbpd), October (1.44 mbpd), November (1.46 mbpd), and December (1.47 mbpd). September marked the most severe shortfall, with average daily production dropping to 1.39 mbpd—approximately 110,000 barrels below the OPEC quota.
Cumulative Shortfall and Revenue Impact
Over the nine deficit months in 2025, Nigeria accumulated a gross production shortfall of roughly 18.7 million barrels. After accounting for the modest surpluses achieved in January, June, and July, the net deficit for the year stood at 16.85 million barrels. The trend continued into January 2026, with output averaging 1.459 mbpd, resulting in an additional shortfall of approximately 1.27 million barrels.
Altogether, Nigeria's cumulative production gap from January 2025 to January 2026 reached 18.12 million barrels. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria indicates that Bonny Light crude averaged $72.08 per barrel across the ten months for which official pricing was available. Based on this average price, the 18.12 million-barrel shortfall translates to an estimated revenue loss of $1.31 billion.
When converted at an exchange rate of N1,353 per dollar, this amounts to approximately N1.76 trillion in forfeited revenue. This substantial loss occurred even though Nigeria produced 530.41 million barrels in 2025, generating gross oil receipts of about N55.5 trillion at the same average price and exchange rate.
Structural Challenges and Fiscal Implications
Industry analysts emphasize that these revenue figures represent gross earnings and do not account for various deductions, including production costs, joint venture obligations, cost recovery under production-sharing contracts, domestic supply requirements, and losses associated with oil theft. The repeated failure to meet OPEC quotas highlights persistent structural challenges plaguing Nigeria's oil sector.
Key issues include infrastructure constraints, operational setbacks, security disruptions in the Niger Delta region, and inconsistent field performance. This production volatility exposes the vulnerability of Nigeria's oil-dependent economy and raises serious concerns about long-term fiscal stability and economic planning.
Government Projections for 2026
In response to these challenges, the Federal Government has adopted more conservative assumptions for 2026. The projections include daily oil production of 1.84 million barrels (including condensates), a benchmark price of $64.85 per barrel, and an exchange rate of N1,400 per dollar. These adjusted targets reflect a cautious approach to managing expectations amid ongoing sectoral difficulties.
The revenue gap and production shortfalls serve as a stark reminder of the urgent need for comprehensive reforms in Nigeria's oil industry to enhance efficiency, security, and infrastructure development.
