The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has initiated a major new study to evaluate the state of competition within the nation's vital telecommunications industry, valued at approximately $76 billion.
Why a New Competition Study is Critical Now
Announced at a stakeholders' forum in Lagos on January 13, 2026, the study is a collaboration between the NCC and the global consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). Omotayo Mohammed, Head of Competition and Tariff at the NCC's Policy, Competition and Economic Analysis Department, stated the review is essential to align existing policies with today's market realities.
Mohammed highlighted that the telecoms sector, which contributed 9.1% to Nigeria's GDP in Q3 2025, has transformed dramatically. She pointed to shifts in revenue models, investment patterns, and how companies interact. Rapid tech changes, new consumer habits, high investment costs, and fierce competition have raised alarms about market concentration and the survival of smaller operators.
"The last comprehensive, industry-wide competition study conducted by the Commission was concluded in 2013," Mohammed noted, explaining that recent studies were narrower in focus. The current landscape demands a full reassessment across the entire telecoms value chain.
Global Pressures and Changing Consumer Demands
Akolawole Odunlami, Director of Strategy at PwC Network, emphasized the study's timeliness amid global sector shifts. He revealed that while the global telecoms market is projected to hit $1.3 trillion by 2028, growth has slowed to 2-3% annually from a pre-pandemic 4%.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, subscriber numbers are rising, but operators face falling Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and intense competition. "Today's consumers are not just buying data; they are looking for digital experiences," Odunlami said. Users now seek entertainment, fintech, and social connectivity, with data as the backbone.
He explained that Over-The-Top (OTT) services like WhatsApp and Microsoft Teams have eroded traditional voice and messaging income, making data the primary revenue driver. Globally, telecom firms are integrating lifestyle services—like utilities and healthcare—into their platforms.
Future Tech and the Path Forward for Nigeria
The rollout of 5G and future 6G networks will further change the game. However, Odunlami cautioned that adoption in Nigeria and Sub-Saharan Africa lags due to infrastructure gaps, low R&D investment, and slow uptake of 5G devices.
Short to medium-term 5G adoption in the region is projected at a modest 14–17%, far below global averages, highlighting a need for policy and investment support.
The NCC-PwC study will be diagnostic and evidence-based, not designed to pre-judge any operator. It will analyze market dynamics, pinpoint sources of market power, and offer recommendations to foster fair competition, innovation, and quality service. Its success hinges on accurate data from stakeholders, with confidentiality guaranteed.
This initiative marks a crucial step by the regulator to ensure Nigeria's telecoms sector remains competitive, innovative, and sustainable in a fast-evolving digital world.
