Nigeria's telecommunications industry is poised for a dramatic transformation in 2026, moving from a phase of consolidation into one of aggressive, infrastructure-led expansion. This pivotal shift is expected to be powered by a dual strategy focusing on a nationwide fibre optic backbone and innovative satellite-based solutions for last-mile connectivity.
The Foundation: From Consolidation to Accelerated Growth
The year 2025 was marked by industry resilience and consolidation, even amidst significant quality of service complaints. However, 2026 is widely projected to be a year of accelerated growth. This optimism is shared by major industry bodies like the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON) and the Association of Telecommunication Companies of Nigeria (ATCON). They cite rising digital demand, sustained investment, and improved regulatory alignment as key drivers.
Despite missing the 70% broadband penetration target set for December 2025—achieving only 50.58% by November—data consumption hit a record 1.24 million terabytes by that same month. The final figures for December are anticipated to show a significant leap due to festive online activities.
Deolu Ogunbanjo, President of the National Association of Telecom Subscribers (NATCOMS), acknowledged that telephone services were subpar in 2025 but expressed optimism for 2026 based on anticipated investments in fibre, satellite, data centres, and AI infrastructure.
The Fibre Revolution: Building a National Digital Backbone
The centrepiece of 2026's infrastructure push is the $2 billion Building Resilient Digital Infrastructure for Growth (BRIDGE) Project. Described by ATCON President Tony Emoekpere as a major confidence booster, this initiative aims to expand Nigeria's fibre optic network from an estimated 35,000 km to approximately 125,000 km.
This new backbone will operate on an open-access, wholesale basis, a structural shift designed to break the near-monopoly of major Mobile Network Operators (MNOs). It will allow smaller Internet Service Providers (ISPs) and MNOs to lease capacity fairly, fostering competition. Dr. Bosun Tijani, Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, stated this rollout should drive down wholesale bandwidth costs, leading to more affordable data for consumers.
The fibre network is architecturally designed for resilience, featuring seven regional backbone rings covering all six geopolitical zones and Lagos. It specifically targets all 774 Local Government Area (LGA) headquarters with Points of Presence (PoPs), which will act as hubs to connect 38,800 public schools and 16,900 health facilities for e-education and telemedicine.
The Satellite Revolution: Reaching the Unreachable
While fibre addresses high-density areas, satellite technology is the strategic answer for ubiquity and resilience. The government recognises that terrain, insecurity, and cost make traditional networks impractical for many rural, riverine, and border communities.
Solutions include the expansion of the national satellite, NigComSat, and partnerships with Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) providers. A key development is the agreement between Airtel Africa and Starlink to launch satellite-to-mobile services in 2026, starting with data for select apps and text messaging. This Direct-to-Cell (D2D) technology will allow standard smartphones to connect directly to satellites, bypassing the need for ground towers in signal blackspots.
Stephanie Bednarek, Starlink's Vice President of Sales, highlighted the life-changing potential of connecting remote areas across Africa. Furthermore, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has prioritised D2D services in its 2025-2030 roadmap.
Telecom expert Kehinde Aluko noted that satellites are vital for network resilience, acting as a fallback during fibre cuts. However, he cautioned that challenges remain, including the high cost of user equipment and the need for a regulatory framework that encourages MNO-satellite company collaboration.
Supporting Infrastructure and Critical Challenges
To support the expected data surge, the sector is also focusing on data centre expansion and AI readiness. Ikechukwu Nnamani, CEO of Digital Realty Nigeria, warned that over 90% of Nigeria's data infrastructure is concentrated in Lagos, serving only about 10% of the population. He argued that Nigeria needs a minimum of 72 edge data centres nationwide to achieve true digital competitiveness and support a $1 trillion economy by 2030.
A non-negotiable for 2026's success is the visible enforcement of the Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) designation for telecom assets. Rampant fibre cuts—over 19,000 incidents were reported by the NCC from January to August 2025—and vandalism pose a severe threat. Tony Emoekpere and others have called for stronger penalties and better coordination to protect these vital assets, which are foundational to national security and economic stability.
As Nigeria stands at this digital crossroads, the combined force of fibre and satellite presents a formidable plan for deep, nationwide digital inclusion. The execution of this plan, coupled with robust asset protection and supportive regulation, will determine whether 2026 becomes the landmark year the industry anticipates.
