The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued a warning that the ongoing Ebola outbreak could potentially reach the scale of the devastating 2014 West Africa epidemic if robust public health measures are not promptly implemented. In a press briefing on Friday, June 5, CDC officials presented modeling data indicating that without effective intervention, the outbreak could result in tens of thousands of cases.
Potential Scale of the Outbreak
Jason Asher, director of the CDC's Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics, stated during the briefing that the scale of the 2014 outbreak, which saw over 28,000 cases and more than 11,000 deaths, is possible. The projections were published in the agency's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Asher emphasized that the worst outcomes could be avoided if a larger proportion of patients were identified, isolated, and treated.
Modeling Scenarios
The CDC's models are based on four possible intervention scenarios, ranging from poor (20 percent) to extremely high (95 percent) levels of isolation and treatment. According to the agency, if isolation levels are poor and no other interventions are implemented, there is a 65 percent chance that cases will exceed 20,000 within three months. Asher clarified that the models are not forecasts but planning tools designed to support action, not to generate alarm.
Current Situation
Satish Pillai, the CDC manager for the Ebola response, noted that the total number of infected individuals requiring isolation remains unclear. However, he indicated that current isolation levels on the ground are likely on the lower end. The outbreak was declared on May 15 in northeastern DR Congo, but the rare Bundibugyo species of the Ebola virus is believed to have been spreading for some time prior.
Funding and Response
On Friday, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the African Union's public health agency announced that $518 million is needed over the next six months to combat the deadly outbreak in DR Congo and its neighbors. According to the WHO's latest figures, there are 381 confirmed cases in the DRC, including 64 deaths. The outbreak has hit three provinces, with the epicenter in Ituri, which accounts for 90 percent of confirmed cases and 76 percent of confirmed deaths.
Regional Impact
Across the northeastern border in Uganda, there have been 16 confirmed cases, including one death. Seven Ebola patients in the DRC and two in Uganda have recovered. The CDC stressed that the public health response to control this outbreak will likely need to be of similar magnitude to the response for the 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola outbreak.
