Nigeria's SDG Failure Rooted in State Capture by Political Elite
The Nigerian State is no longer capable of delivering the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) because it has been confiscated by an irresponsible, self-serving political class that is reckless enough to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs, according to Professor Jibrin Ibrahim, a Senior Fellow of the Centre for Democracy and Development and Chair of the Editorial Board of PREMIUM TIMES.
Ibrahim argues that the State is undergoing a three-dimensional crisis. The first dimension affects the political economy and is generated mainly by public corruption over the past four decades, which has created a run on the treasury at national and state levels. The second is the crisis of citizenship, symbolised by ethno-regionalism, Boko Haram insurgency, violent ethno-religious conflicts, farmer-herder killings, agitations for Biafra, militancy in the Niger Delta, and indigene/settler conflicts. The third element relates to the frustration of the country's democratic aspirations in a context where the citizenry believes in 'true democracy' but is confronted with a reckless political class that is corrupt, self-serving, and manipulative.
Historical Context and Global Inequality
Ibrahim traces the roots of today's challenges to centuries of wars, slavery, conquests, imperialism, and colonialism, which produced massive wealth on one side and mass poverty, inequality, and misery on the other. The MDGs and SDGs were created as policy frameworks that could reduce, but not correct, this injustice. While advancements in technology and production systems made correcting some ills possible, politics and power dynamics have created stumbling blocks. The current geopolitical dynamics are worsening the situation, with wealth concentration increasing dramatically.
The world is changing as hegemons unravel and new ones emerge. Fault lines deepen as old hegemons discard the rules-based international system and return to 19th-century gunboat diplomacy, where might is right. Death and destruction spread as AI-aided warfare replaces older weapons, and the capacity for maximum destruction and genocide grows. In this context, Ibrahim cites Elon Musk's statement on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast: 'The fundamental weakness of Western civilisation is empathy.' To care for the poor, the hungry, and victims of violence requires empathy, but many among the richest and most powerful want an end to empathy and care, and would leave the masses behind.
Nigeria's Poor SDG Performance
Nigeria is ranked 147th out of 167 countries on the global Sustainable Development Report index, with only one goal—Responsible Consumption and Production—exhibiting significant progress. Despite some improvements in maternal health and gender parity in education, substantial challenges in poverty reduction, healthcare, and security hinder overall SDG implementation. The country has failed to use its large population and abundant natural resources to promote sustainable development.
As Bode Agusto argues: 'Population is only a strength if it is well educated, healthy, the economy has the capacity to provide them with employment and households have enough income to buy goods and services produced by businesses.' The population growth rate is a problem because Nigeria has become the poverty capital of the world. An estimated 130 to 141 million Nigerians—roughly 62 per cent of the population—experience multidimensional poverty, struggling with severe deprivations in health, education, and living standards. Millions survive on less than $5 per day amidst soaring inflation and economic volatility.
Uncontrolled Population Growth
Agusto highlights Nigeria's uncontrolled population growth: 'Every year, we add five million people to our population. This is roughly the size of Liberia or Montenegro. According to www.populationpyramid.net, in 1960, the population of the UK was 52 million, while that of Nigeria was 46 million; by 2015, the UK was 62 million while Nigeria was 185 million; and by 2070, Nigeria will be 550 million while the UK will be only 80 million. This means that over 110 years, Nigeria will add over 500 million to her population whilst the UK would add only 30 million, and the UK was coming from a higher base. This is frightening!'
Fiscal Crisis and Lack of Accountability
No regime in Nigeria's history has borrowed as extensively as the erstwhile Buhari and current Tinubu administrations. The country has been borrowing massively to pay for recurrent budget expenditures while revenues have been reducing. The public sector is not organised to provide public services to the people. Public expenditure on services such as health and education is much lower than in other African countries. Budget figures are a poor indicator of actual spending because allocated amounts are rarely released in full or even in significant percentages. Lack of accountability further erodes institutional capacity to deliver services. Policy design is influenced more by bargaining within the cabal than by public accountability mechanisms. The lack of information at national and subnational levels—on budget allocations, expenditures, and development outcomes—impedes civil society and the media from supervising government policies and financial management.
Broken Social Pact and Regional Inequality
These issues have broken the social pact between citizens and the State, leading to a moment of doubt about nationhood, similar to the 1962-1970 civil war and the early 1990s prolonged military rule. Poverty in Nigeria is not evenly spread. The number of people living in poverty in the Northern region has been increasing since 2011, and by 2016, it represented 87 per cent of all the poor in Nigeria. Inequality has increased in recent years, as indicated by the 2025 Gini coefficient. The most important contemporary problem is the lack of opportunities for the youth. The country has a huge youth bulge that has been growing rapidly at a time when formal employment opportunities are declining, and having a job has become a minority experience. The North—especially the North-East and North-West—is the most affected region, with the highest birth rate in the contemporary world, the lowest level of economic development, the least access to education, and the poorest network of health facilities and staff.
Call for Citizen Action
Ibrahim concludes that the masses must seize the moment to galvanise their countries into remedial action. Transformations in the global order must lead to states and societies re-oriented to serve the public good. Re-imagining and re-creating a State that prioritises public policies promoting the public good is the most important agenda today. The SDGs are the mildest manifesto spelling out this policy framework. The argument about the SDGs is not about international commitments but about the commitment of every State that hosts poverty and misery, as the Nigerian story reveals. Nigerians need to care less about empathy from the rest of the world and care more about how they can act to save the country.
