A political analyst has projected that Atiku Abubakar, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate for the 2027 general elections, is on course to win the presidency, citing rising economic hardship and strong regional support as key factors.
Dare Glintstone Akinniyi, Spokesperson of the New Democratic Frontiers, argued that the cost of living crisis gripping Nigeria mirrors the conditions that cost President Goodluck Jonathan a second term. Akinniyi said voters are increasingly looking toward Atiku as an alternative to the Tinubu administration.
Atiku's Regional Strongholds
According to the analyst, Atiku is expected to sweep roughly 80% of votes across the North-East and North-West, regions where he commands deep loyalty. Beyond those zones, Akinniyi projected wins in Nasarawa, Niger, and Benue states, as well as a strong performance in the Middle Belt and the South-South.
Outside his northern base, the analyst identified Osun, Ondo, Kogi, Edo, and Bayelsa as states where Atiku could win with relative ease. In the South-West, the picture is more complicated. Atiku won Oyo and Osun in 2023 and secured between 20% and 25% of the vote in Lagos, but the region remains President Tinubu's political heartland. Akinniyi warned that flipping states there without a firm alliance with a South-West leader would prove difficult.
Akinniyi projected that, mathematically, Atiku would meet the constitutional requirement of a simple majority and at least 25% of the vote in more than two-thirds of Nigeria's 36 states and the FCT, which is the threshold needed for a first-round presidential win.
Subsidy Pledge Puts Tinubu on the Back Foot
The analyst pointed to Atiku's campaign promise to reinstate the fuel subsidy as a turning point in the race. Akinniyi said the pledge forced the Tinubu administration to respond by announcing a 30-day discount on petrol prices, a move he described as evidence that the incumbent is feeling political pressure.
He also noted that despite the ruling APC assembling a Presidential Campaign Council featuring over 30 governors and figures drawn from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), mass sentiment appears to be running in Atiku's favour.
In a three-way race between the APC/PDP, the Action People's Movement (APM), and the ADC, Akinniyi said Atiku's most realistic southern gains would come first from the South-South, followed by one or two South-East states if opposition votes consolidate around his candidacy.
"It is not Uhuru for anyone right now, but Atiku Abubakar is projected to be the next President of Nigeria, going by the mood and yearnings of the masses," Akinniyi said.
Related Report on Key States
Meanwhile, Legit.ng also reported that a new report examined the political landscape in five key states ahead of the 2027 presidential election in Nigeria. Defections by Governor Ahmadu Fintiri to the APC and Governor Bala Mohammed to the APM have shifted political calculations in Adamawa and Bauchi. Kano's roughly 5.9 million registered voters and Kwara's APC dominance since 2019 make both states ones to watch closely.
