The Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng has projected that President Bola Tinubu will win 20 states in the 2027 presidential election, placing him ahead of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who is projected to win nine states, and Labour Party's Peter Obi, projected to win eight states. The forecast, released on September 2, 2026, assumes the election is held under current political conditions, with the All Progressives Congress (APC) emerging victorious.
Tinubu's Projected Stronghold in the South-West and Kano
According to PIG, Tinubu, running on the APC platform, is projected to sweep all six South-West states, including Lagos, his political base. The forecast also places Kano State in his column, a significant gain given Kano's status as one of Nigeria's largest electoral territories, providing the president with a critical foothold in the North.
The group attributes Tinubu's projected lead to his perceived progress in stabilising the economy and his administration's broader policy direction. However, PIG cautioned that the president's ability to communicate these achievements to ordinary Nigerians could become a defining campaign issue as the election approaches.
Atiku and Obi's Projected State Wins
Atiku Abubakar, expected to be the African Democratic Congress (ADC) standard-bearer, is forecast to win nine states, drawing largely from parts of Northern Nigeria, including Kaduna and select states in the North-East and North-West. His extensive political network and experience from multiple presidential campaigns are expected to help mobilise support across the region. His position on fuel subsidy reform, particularly proposals to ease petrol costs and reduce household burdens, could resonate with voters facing high transportation costs and rising living expenses, though whether his northern base suffices without broader national backing remains a key question.
Peter Obi, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, is projected to win eight states, with the Federal Capital Territory and Edo State among areas expected to swing in his favour. The forecast reflects momentum he built during the 2023 election, when he recorded strong performances in multiple parts of the country. Obi's campaign is expected to continue focusing on accountability, economic management, and efficient public spending. His principal challenge, PIG noted, is breaking beyond regions where he already commands loyalty and expanding into new political territory.
Alliances and Economic Factors Could Reshape the Race
PIG was clear that no aspect of its projection should be treated as a settled outcome. The group said coalition arrangements, running mate selections, candidate defections, and shifts in public sentiment over inflation, security, unemployment, and the cost of living could all rearrange the electoral map before Nigerians head to the polls in 2027. Regional, religious, and ethnic considerations are also expected to factor into voters' calculations as the election draws closer.
