A new security assessment has documented at least 73 election-related violent incidents in Osun State between October 2025 and July 2026, resulting in 12 deaths across 14 local government areas. The report, released on August 10 by the Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI), comes just days before the Saturday, August 15, 2026, governorship election.
Violence Concentrated in Key Areas
According to the 2026 Osun Election Integrity and Security Assessment report, Osogbo recorded 27 incidents and three deaths, accounting for 41 per cent of all documented incidents. Ede South followed with six incidents, while Olorunda recorded five incidents and two deaths. The report classified Osogbo and Ede South as the only two LGAs under critical electoral pressure.
The assessment drew on a citizen survey of 3,275 respondents across all 30 local government areas, 15 key informant interviews, incident monitoring, media monitoring, stakeholder validation and secondary research, as reported by ICIR.
Campaign Season Sees Spike in Violence
Of the 73 incidents documented, 54 — representing 78 per cent — occurred between May and July 2026, coinciding with a period of heightened campaign activity across the state. The report identified six recurring forms of violence: shootings and murders, intimidation and harassment, physical assaults, kidnappings, property destruction and verbal assaults.
KDI noted that the violence was increasingly driven by political rivalry rather than ordinary criminal behaviour, with political actors and their affiliated groups identified as the main perpetrators. Party members and supporters made up the largest share of victims.
Pressure Zones and Political Allegations
Geographically, violence was concentrated in a small number of areas rather than spread evenly across the state. A further 11 LGAs — including Ede North, Iwo, Irewole, Obokun, Ilesa East, Ilesa West and Ife North — were placed in the high-pressure category, while nine were rated moderate and eight were rated low.
The assessment also noted that Senator Francis Fadahunsi, who represents Osun East, reportedly directed his supporters to attack members of the Accord Party before later denying the order. He was subsequently invited by the State Police Command, questioned and released.
INEC and Police Response
On August 10, the Independent National Electoral Commission said it had mapped potential flashpoints following a security risk assessment of the state. Speaking on Arise TV, INEC's Director of Voter Education and Publicity, Victoria Eta-Messi, described the atmosphere in Osun as "tense" and "volatile".
Eta-Messi said the commission was working with security agencies under the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security to guide deployment decisions. She said the military would provide "back-end and outer-ring support" in areas at risk of violence.
The Nigeria Police Force published emergency contact numbers for the public to report security threats and election-related incidents in Osun State. The hotlines cover the DIG Election, CP Election, Control Room, and a separate Complaint Response Unit for cases of police misconduct.
Meanwhile, the Nigeria Police Force announced a full security lockdown of Osun State ahead of Saturday's governorship election. Over 15,000 police officers, a DIG, 30 Commissioners of Police, helicopters and drones were mobilised for the poll. Traders in Osogbo markets told correspondents they received between N10,000 and N15,000 from party canvassers.
