Former Ekiti State Governor Ayodele Fayose has declared that Peter Obi effectively ended his own presidential ambitions for the 2027 election the moment he moved from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC). Fayose made this assessment during an appearance on TVC News' Politics Tonight on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, where he spoke about the state of the opposition ahead of the general elections.
Why Fayose Blames Obi's Party Switch
According to Fayose, the opposition had a genuine chance of making an impact on the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) when its key figures were consolidated under the ADC. That opportunity, he said, evaporated once Obi departed. "When they were all together in ADC, I would tell anybody that they will make an impact. The day Obi left ADC for NDC, that day Obi lost," Fayose said.
He was careful to distinguish between his criticism of the decision and his view of Obi as a person, describing the former Anambra governor as "a fantastic Nigerian who has made his marks, who has shown that things can get better." His concern, he said, was purely about opposition strategy. "But when opposition, when they don't come together, they will continue to lose," he added.
Fayose also noted that the window for any realignment had closed. With the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) having already accredited candidates, he said reversing course was no longer realistic. "It's too late now. INEC has accredited everybody. Even if you say you are not doing again, you're on your own," he said. "You have put your feet in the water. You can't get out. You have gotten wet already."
Fayose's Projection for Tinubu in 2027
On President Bola Tinubu's re-election prospects, Fayose said the political dynamics in the South-West currently worked strongly in the President's favour, citing the backing of influential figures across the region. Drawing from voting data in the 2023 presidential election, he projected that Tinubu could pull in roughly four million votes from the South-West alone. "In the West alone, Tinubu will get close to about four million votes," he said. "When you look at the pattern of the last election, Tinubu will win this election close to about 65 per cent."
Fayose also weighed in on the controversy surrounding the recent Osun governorship election, pushing back against suggestions that electoral malpractice was limited to one political party. He said police footage broadcast during the election showed supporters across the APC, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Accord Party all involved in vote-buying. "It's mere desperation. Mere desperation. The two sides clearly, going by what we saw on the television on Saturday, police arrested the two sides sharing money," he said. He described the problem as deeply systemic, one that demanded accountability from politicians and voters alike.
Obi's Party Switch and Broader Opposition Context
Peter Obi, who was the Labour Party presidential candidate in the 2023 general election, resigned from the ADC on May 2, 2026, and was ratified as the NDC's presidential candidate on May 29, 2026. Fayose's comments come amid a broader assessment of opposition unity, with FCT Minister Nyesom Wike also declaring that the 2027 presidential election will be far less competitive for President Tinubu than his 2023 victory, citing what he described as a fractured and directionless opposition. Wike made those remarks on Monday, August 17, 2026, during an inspection tour of areas in the Federal Capital Territory affected by recent flooding.
Fayose's analysis underscores the deep divisions within Nigeria's opposition camp, with the former governor arguing that the split has effectively handed the ruling APC a significant advantage heading into the 2027 election cycle.
