The Geopolitics Survey International (GSI) has released a poll indicating that the incumbent Governor of Osun State, Ademola Adeleke, holds a commanding lead ahead of the 2026 governorship election. According to the survey, 79 percent of respondents said they would vote for Adeleke if the election were held immediately.
Survey Methodology and Demographics
GSI Programme Officer Adetokun Adeola disclosed the findings in an official statement, noting that the survey ran for one month across Osun State's nine federal constituencies. Field workers conducted oral interviews between December 2, 2025, and January 2, 2026.
A total of 2,100 residents were sampled, with 200 respondents per federal constituency plus an additional 300 in the state capital, Osogbo. The demographic breakdown showed that 60 percent of respondents were women and 40 percent were men. Additionally, 55 percent of participants were under 45 years of age, with the remaining 45 percent aged 45 and above.
Voting Intentions and Candidate Preferences
When asked about their voting intentions, 79 percent of respondents chose Governor Adeleke, while 15 percent named the candidate identified as AMBO (Oyebamiji), and six percent selected Najeem Salam. Supporters of Adeleke frequently cited his performance in office as the primary reason for their backing.
Conversely, those opposed to AMBO pointed to what they described as his anti-labour record, his association with a failed APC administration, and his alleged role in the ongoing dispute over local government leadership in the state.
Local Government Crisis and Voter Sentiment
The survey also examined public opinion on the local government controversy in Osun. Eight in ten respondents affirmed that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) holds a legitimate claim to local government leadership, referencing elections held on February 22, 2025, and stating that the APC's tenure expired in October 2025.
The same proportion rejected the notion that APC chairmen still have valid tenure, with many describing the continued occupation of council secretariats as illegal and blaming the police for permitting it. On the question of blame, 75 percent attributed the council crisis to the APC, 20 percent faulted the police, and five percent said the PDP bore some responsibility for not challenging the federal government and the APC more forcefully.
Impact on Future Elections
Sixty-five percent of respondents said the paralysis at the local government level would influence their voting behaviour in future Osun elections, while 35 percent cited other considerations, such as the state government's overall performance. GSI noted a three percent margin of error in the findings, and the statement described this as the tenth survey the organisation has published on Osun affairs since it began operations in the state in early 2024.
The poll highlights Adeleke's strong position as the 2026 governorship election approaches, with the local government crisis emerging as a significant factor shaping voter sentiment across the state.
