Osun State heads to the polls on Saturday, 15 August, in a governorship election that has already claimed at least 29 lives in 73 election-related violent incidents, according to Amnesty International, as of Tuesday. Incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke seeks re-election on the Accord Party (AP) platform, facing 14 other candidates, including Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Najeem Salam of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The election is widely seen as a proxy battle between Adeleke and former Governor Gboyega Oyetola, with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's performance on the national stage also at stake.
Election Violence: A War Footing
Amnesty International reported that at least 29 people have been killed in 73 election-related violent incidents in Osun as of Tuesday. A viral video this week showed Senator Francis Fadahunsi of the APC explicitly urging his supporters to "kill" members of the governor's party. Afrobeats star Davido appealed to US President Donald Trump for help in preventing election violence, later saying "Trump's people had reached out to him."
The APC's 276-member National Campaign Council, led by Imo Governor Hope Uzodimma, has arrived in Osogbo, mobilising for the election. A bank source told the author that no branch in Lagos could pay out up to ₦5 million in cash, as politicians raid banks, leaving Osun "floating on a dead sea of money."
A Grudge Match Rooted in 2018 and 2022
The election is a grudge match between Adeleke and Oyetola, dating back to 2018 when Oyetola defeated Adeleke in a supplementary election after an "inconclusive" first round. Adeleke never accepted defeat, and in 2022, he defeated Oyetola by 28,344 votes, reversing the 482-vote loss of 2018. Oyebamiji is perceived as Oyetola's second term, and both are seen as loyalists of President Tinubu.
This perception poses a problem for the APC candidate, as it reminds voters of a past they are trying to escape and a present where federal economic policies have left them struggling. The outcome of the election will be a verdict on Tinubu's performance, a burden Oyebamiji must bear.
Aregbesola's Legacy and Oyetola's Burden
Oyetola inherited a torrid legacy from his predecessor, Rauf Aregbesola, whose ambitious "O-programmes" and social interventions, including dress codes for students, left the state's treasury ragged and voters exhausted. This exhaustion haunted Oyetola during his first term, compounded by dwindling state and federal resources.
Oyetola is not on the ballot but is in the race by proxy, desperate to settle accounts with Adeleke. His protege, Oyebamiji, is an accountant with a thin public sector record, having served as commissioner of finance under both Aregbesola and Oyetola, making it difficult to distance himself from the chaotic financial past.
Adeleke's Achievements and Challenges
Adeleke has paid backlogs of salaries, gratuities, and pensions, and continued inherited projects. However, he faces huge odds. His offer to defect to the APC, reportedly blocked by Oyetola, and his promise to support Tinubu in the presidential poll brought no relief, leading to his defection from the PDP to the Accord Party.
Adeleke struggles with two parallel local government structures—one loyal to Oyetola, receiving federal allocations due to a disputed court order, and another PDP-aligned cohort from last year's local government election. Additionally, the Road Transport Workers' Union in Osun has been captured by MC Oluomo, an APC enforcer.
Last-Minute Moves and Tight Margins
A source told the author that the APC Federal Government's decision to start renovating the Iwo-Ibadan Highway from the Iwo end, rather than Osogbo, could be a last-minute effort to woo the Oluwo, whose domain has high voter numbers. High-profile defections to the APC, the candidacy of ADC's Salam from Ejigbo, and pledges of allegiance could put Adeleke in a tight spot, though he may benefit from the large voter base in Ife.
Allegations of "Ede-nisation," cronyism favouring Adeleke's town and family, could also hurt him. As the source said, "In a contest of margins, which is likely going to be the case in Osun, the incumbent has a better chance, but it's such tight races that also make rigging much easier."
Osun has consistently maintained a voter turnout of over 40 per cent across many election cycles, above the national average. The music in Osun is playing again, and hopefully, all the parties, including the election management body, will resist the seductive drumbeat of aiding and abetting a war.
