A Nigerian identified as Isaac Timi has released a detailed prediction for the Osun State governorship election, mapping expected results across all 30 local government areas. The forecast gives Governor Ademola Adeleke's Accord Party camp, known as IMOLE, a commanding lead, projecting victories in 22 LGAs, while the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) bloc of Bola Oyebamiji, called AMUBO, is expected to win in the remaining eight.
IMOLE's Projected Strongholds
According to the prediction, IMOLE is projected to secure the following 22 local government areas: Atakunmosa West, Ayedaade, Ayedire, Boripe, Ede North, Ede South, Egbedore, Ejigbo, Ife Central, Ife East, Ife North, Ife South, Ifelodun, Ila, Ilesa East, Irepodun, Isokan, Olorunda, Oriade, Orolu, Osogbo, and Obokun.
These areas span the state's major cities and rural regions, indicating a broad base of support for Adeleke's re-election bid. The list includes the state capital, Osogbo, as well as the historic towns of Ife, Ede, and Ilesa.
AMUBO's Expected Wins
In contrast, AMUBO is tipped to win in eight local government areas: Atakunmosa East, Boluwaduro, Ifedayo, Ilesa West, Irewole, Iwo, Odo Otin, and Ola Oluwa. These are spread across the state, but notably include Iwo, a significant town in the southwestern part of Osun.
Based on these projections, Senator Ademola Adeleke of IMOLE is named as the predicted winner of the election. The prediction suggests a decisive victory for the incumbent, though the margin across the state is not uniform.
Significance of LGA Control
Osun State has 30 local government areas, and control of a majority of them has typically been a strong indicator of overall electoral performance in the state. The 2022 Osun governorship election, which brought Adeleke to power, was itself decided by a narrow margin before being contested in court, making the 2026 contest particularly significant for both camps.
The prediction comes amid a heated political atmosphere. Legit.ng earlier reported that Accord Party's Prof. Christopher Imumolen publicly withdrew support for Governor Adeleke at the APC mega rally in Osun State. Imumolen swapped his yellow Accord Party cap for an APC cap at the rally, drawing a visible reaction from the crowd. Senate President Akpabio, Lagos Governor Sanwo-Olu, and several APC heavyweights attended the rally days before the August 15 election.
