Political Analyst Examines Shettima's Influence on Tinubu's 2027 Northern Prospects
President Bola Tinubu's potential re-election strategy for the 2027 general election has come under scrutiny, with particular focus on the role of his running mate, Vice President Kashim Shettima. A political commentator has provided insights into whether Shettima's political weight in Northern Nigeria could significantly boost the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) ticket.
Shettima's Political Weight in Northern Region Questioned
Omotayo Yusuf, a prominent political analyst, shared his perspective during an exclusive interview, suggesting that Vice President Shettima may not possess the political influence necessary to substantially enhance Tinubu's chances in the northern regions during the 2027 election. While acknowledging Shettima's background as a former governor of Borno State, Yusuf noted that the vice president has not demonstrated the expected level of political strength across Northern Nigeria.
"There has been talk about how much Kashim Shettima brings to the table when it comes to pulling political weight and advancing Tinubu's and by extension the APC's chances in 2027," Yusuf stated. "I do think that Shettima has played a little or no role, and that is not to say being a former governor of Borno State makes him unimportant, but he has not demonstrated the sort of political strength in Northern Nigeria that you would expect."
Tinubu's Northern Strategy and Potential Running Mate Changes
The analyst highlighted that since the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu has made significant political inroads in the North Central region, including states like Kaduna and Plateau where the APC previously faced losses. Yusuf suggested that Tinubu appears positioned to secure victories in these areas during the 2027 election, potentially reducing the need for additional political concessions to the region.
However, Yusuf proposed an alternative strategy: "Tinubu might be looking to cement his opportunity further in that region by going with a Northern Christian candidate." This move would represent a calculated attempt to balance ethnic and religious considerations ahead of what promises to be a closely contested election where every vote will matter.
The Risk of Dropping Shettima and Regional Consolidation Needs
Despite questioning Shettima's political weight, Yusuf cautioned against the ruling party making hasty decisions about the vice presidential slot. "It would be a great gamble for the APC and Tinubu to drop Shettima in the 2027 election," he noted, emphasizing that the president needs to consolidate his chances in both the northwest and northeast regions during the upcoming poll.
The political commentator explained that these northern regions might prove particularly challenging for Tinubu to win, making strategic decisions about running mate selection crucial. "What Tinubu further needs is an opportunity to consolidate on opportunities in the Northeast and Northwest," Yusuf observed, highlighting areas that could determine the election's outcome.
North Central Region's Support and By-Election Indicators
Contrary to expectations that Tinubu needs to offer more concessions to the North Central region, Yusuf pointed to recent political developments as evidence of growing support. "I do not think that the North Central needs further conviction to support Tinubu in 2027," he asserted. "As already seen in by-elections where the APC won in those states, based on visible progress that they have seen."
This assessment suggests that the ruling party's performance in recent by-elections within the North Central region indicates a shifting political landscape that could benefit Tinubu in 2027 without requiring additional political promises or appointments.
Strategic Considerations for the 2027 Election
Yusuf concluded with a call for careful strategic planning by the APC leadership: "I expect, I am hoping that the APC is judicious in their decision-making and see how they can balance the need for ethnic and religious balance with an upcoming important election where every number will count."
The analysis presents a complex picture of Nigeria's political dynamics as the country approaches another significant election cycle. While Shettima's direct political influence in Northern Nigeria may be limited according to this assessment, his potential replacement carries substantial risk. The ruling party must carefully weigh regional alliances, religious considerations, and demonstrated political strengths when formulating their 2027 election strategy.
