President Bola Tinubu has constituted an eleven-man committee to develop a National Threat Assessment and a Strategic Defence Operations Plan within ninety days, a directive that has raised critical questions about its relationship with existing national security frameworks. The announcement, made by Presidential Spokesman Bayo Onanuga, comes roughly four months before the next general elections and has sparked debate over the plan's scope, composition, and potential impact on Nigeria's security architecture.
Committee Composition and Coordination Questions
The committee is composed of named individuals rather than offices, a significant distinction that removes flexibility for substitution and attaches personal accountability to the mandate. Members include National Security Adviser Malam Nuhu Ribadu, Minister of Defence General Christopher Musa, Minister of State for Defence Alhaji Bello Muhammad Matawalle, Chief of Defence Staff General Olufemi Oluyede, service chiefs, and heads of the State Security Service and National Intelligence Agency. Major General Adeyinka A Famadewa, the President's Special Adviser on Homeland Security, will coordinate the committee and provide secretariat support.
However, the composition raises legitimate questions that the release did not address. The Inspector General of Police, Chief of Defence Intelligence, Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps head, and Nigeria Immigration Service head are notably absent. In a country where internal security, public order, and counter-insurgency rely heavily on policing and civil defence structures, these omissions are not trivial matters.
Existing Security Frameworks Under Scrutiny
Nigeria already possesses numerous security strategy documents, and the ninety-day mandate would benefit from an honest reckoning with what already exists. In 2013, under President Goodluck Jonathan, Nigeria launched a comprehensive national security architecture built on three interconnected documents: the National Counter Terrorism Strategy (NACTEST), the National Security Strategy (NSS), and the National Cybersecurity Policy and Strategy. NACTEST, initiated by NSA Colonel Sambo Dasuki (Rtd), rested on five pillars—Forestall, Secure, Identify, Prepare, and Implement—and mandated periodic reviews every five to ten years.
Under President Muhammadu Buhari, the Office of the National Security Adviser, led by Major General Babagana Monguno (Rtd), revised NACTEST and launched the National Crisis Management Doctrine (NCMD) in 2022. The NCMD translated broad policy directives into concrete crisis protocols, establishing standardised command structures, strategic communication channels, and escalation pathways. Under the current administration, the Office of the National Security Adviser unveiled the NCTC Strategic Plan 2025–2030, a five-year roadmap for preventing and countering violent extremism, unveiled in November 2025 by Senate President Godswill Akpabio on behalf of President Tinubu.
Funding and Implementation Concerns
Onanuga's release states that once approved, the proposed plan "would serve as the principal framework for coordinating military and defence operations over the medium term" and would guide a multi-year defence expenditure and procurement plan. The emphasis on military and defence operations and spending, rather than national security in the broader sense, is telling. It may align with the committee's composition, which is heavily weighted towards armed services and intelligence agencies, and with the choice of a retired Major General Famadewa as coordinator rather than the NSA.
A ninety-day planning exercise can produce a credible framework, but it must be backed by a realistic, legislatively supported multi-year funding commitment. It should not demand excessive new spending, especially at a time when Nigeria continues to borrow heavily for major capital projects. The most consequential paragraph in the release notes that the proposed framework will guide multi-year defence expenditure, ensuring resources are directed toward agreed operational priorities—funding is where seriousness is ultimately tested.
In the concluding paragraph, the President tasked the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (OSGF) and the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA) to give immediate effect to the directive. Their compliance and the quality of output from the committee's named members will define the next ninety days. With the general election approaching, the ninety days will tell much, while the budget will tell the rest.
