The outcome of the recently concluded All Progressives Congress (APC) primaries in Jigawa State has further consolidated Governor Umar Namadi's grip on the party structure, reshaping political calculations ahead of the 2027 governorship election. This development has heightened internal tensions within the ruling party and may push aggrieved APC members toward opposition forces, reports John Akubo.
A History of Stability Now Wobbling
For years, Jigawa State was one of the most politically stable strongholds of the APC in Northern Nigeria, known for predictable electoral outcomes, disciplined elite alignment, and insulation from the turbulence common in ruling party power struggles. However, ahead of the 2027 general elections, that stability is beginning to falter. Beneath the surface of APC dominance lies an intensifying internal confrontation that is quietly reshaping political calculations in the state. What was initially dismissed as routine post-transition friction between Governor Umar Namadi and loyalists of former governor Mohammed Badaru Abubakar has evolved into a deeper contest over influence, succession, and political survival. At the center of this battle is control—not just of government, but of political networks, grassroots machinery, and elite alliances that have sustained APC dominance since 2015.
Governor Namadi's Tightening Grip
Since assuming office in 2023, Governor Namadi has steadily tightened his hold on the ruling party. Recent congresses, consensus arrangements, and ongoing primary processes have reinforced his authority across the APC hierarchy. From ward executives to local government mobilization structures, the governor's loyalists now dominate most of the party's operational framework. Within APC circles, there is little disagreement about where power currently resides. After the recently concluded primaries, it is clear that the governor controls the machinery, delegates, and state apparatus. The concern is whether the bitterness created by this consolidation may eventually become a bigger political problem.
Growing Bitterness and Defections
That bitterness is already surfacing. Many members of the old Badaru political bloc believe they are being gradually pushed aside from the system they helped build. The resignation of former APC State Chairman Ado Sani Kiri was widely interpreted as an early public signal of weakening internal cohesion. Beyond party officials, the fallout is increasingly visible at the grassroots level. The defection of former ALGON Chairman Bala Chamo from the APC to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) sent shockwaves through the ruling party. Chamo was regarded as one of the most influential grassroots mobilizers during the Badaru administration, particularly across local government political networks that once formed the backbone of the APC's electoral dominance. His exit reportedly triggered quiet withdrawals and realignments among several former council chairmen and local coordinators linked to the former governor. In Northern Nigerian politics, such networks are rarely symbolic; they often determine election-day mobilization, voter coordination, and political bargaining strength.
The cracks within the APC have also spread into the legislative bloc. Former Speaker Idris Gwaram formally dumped the ruling party after losing the APC ticket for Gwaram Federal Constituency and has since emerged as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate. Another former Speaker, Idris Garba Kareka, has maintained political silence, though speculation persists over possible future realignments.
Governor Namadi's Advantages
Despite the growing tension, Governor Namadi enters the 2027 cycle with significant advantages. Beyond incumbency, he retains control of state institutions, party machinery, and candidate selection processes. His administration has also recorded visible interventions in road construction, healthcare upgrades, and rural development across parts of the state. However, party stalwarts insist that performance alone may not be enough to neutralize elite discontent in Jigawa's highly networked political environment, where consensus among power blocs has historically mattered as much as governance delivery. A party member in Dutse, who preferred not to be quoted, captured the mood succinctly: “Badaru may not openly confront Namadi, but many of his loyalists believe they have been excluded from the political equation. That resentment is slowly becoming an opposition force.”
Opposition Parties Seize the Opportunity
As the ruling party grapples with internal distrust, opposition parties are attempting to exploit the opening. Among them, the PDP appears to be gaining the most strategic momentum. Though weakened after losing power in 2015, the party never entirely collapsed in Jigawa. Its structures survived years in opposition and continue to retain pockets of grassroots loyalty across several local governments. The influence of former governor Sule Lamido remains significant, while Mustapha Sule Lamido has increasingly emerged as a visible political force among younger party loyalists. It has become obvious that the current crisis within the ruling APC has created fresh opportunities for political recovery. After the 2015 defeat of the PDP in Jigawa, many assumed the major opposition party would be finished, but the structure survived. What is happening now is that APC's internal divisions are reopening the political space for opposition parties, and not only the PDP.
The ADC is also attracting attention, largely because it has become a refuge for aggrieved APC elements and displaced grassroots actors. The entry of former New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) governorship candidate Aminu Ibrahim Ringim further boosted the party's visibility and strengthened perceptions that the ADC could become a negotiating platform for anti-APC coalitions ahead of 2027. Even so, many observers believe the party still lacks the statewide organizational depth required to independently challenge either the APC or PDP. The NNPP, which briefly enjoyed momentum during the last electoral cycle, appears to have weakened considerably following Ringim's exit. Several former supporters have reportedly drifted either toward the ADC or back into PDP networks. The Labour Party, despite its national visibility during the 2023 elections, remains largely peripheral in Jigawa, where politics continues to revolve around entrenched local alliances, elite bargaining, and long-established grassroots mobilization systems.
APC's Dominance Under Threat
For now, the APC remains the dominant political force in the state. But unlike previous election cycles, the party is entering a major contest while battling internal distrust and elite fragmentation. Within APC ranks, the growing anxiety is no longer merely about defections. The greater concern is the possibility of coordination among aggrieved political actors who may eventually unite behind a common electoral objective. Individually, the defectors may appear politically manageable. Collectively, however, they could weaken APC's traditional dominance across key senatorial districts and make the 2027 governorship contest far more competitive than expected. For the first time in years, the APC is fighting itself while the opposition is reorganizing. The outcome of the last primaries and the ruling of the Abuja Federal High Court may boost the opposition's chances, especially now that aggrieved members of any party can defect to other platforms to pursue their political ambitions. If the opposition eventually rallies around a single platform, the 2027 election may be much tighter than many people think.
That possibility is what now makes Jigawa one of the more politically intriguing states ahead of 2027. The ruling party still controls the government and retains enormous institutional advantages. But beneath that dominance, rival camps are recalculating alliances, rebuilding networks, and preparing for what could become the fiercest political contest in the state since the APC came to power. Ultimately, the defining question may no longer be whether the APC remains strong in Jigawa. It is whether the party can contain its internal war before that conflict matures into a coordinated rebellion capable of reshaping the state's political order.
ADC Chairman Expresses Confidence
The Chairman of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in Jigawa State, Kabiru Hussaini, says the party has begun preparations for the 2027 elections and is determined to wrest power from the ruling APC in the state. Hussaini said the party recently commenced the sale of expression of interest and nomination forms following approval by the National Executive Council (NEC) and the party's national leadership. On the party's readiness for the elections, the ADC chairman expressed confidence that the party would field credible candidates capable of challenging the APC. “We are absolutely ready. We are preparing to produce credible candidates with the capacity to topple the opposition parties in Jigawa, especially the APC,” he stated. Hussaini also welcomed aggrieved APC members reportedly defecting to the ADC, saying their entry would strengthen the party if they abide by its rules. “If they come with a free mind and are ready to follow the rules and regulations of our party, they are welcome. We need people who are committed to rescuing the country,” he said. He urged intending aspirants to visit party offices at the local government and state levels for information regarding nomination and expression of interest forms. Speaking on the performance of the current APC administration in Jigawa, Hussaini argued that residents were dissatisfied with the government's policies and economic situation. “People are tired of the APC government and its reform policies, which are not favourable to the masses. Poverty and hardship have worsened, and the Jigawa people are ready to take power from the APC,” he said. According to him, the ADC has developed a “good blueprint” to address poverty, illiteracy, and economic hardship in the state. “The ADC is ready to rescue the Jigawa people. The situation in the country has gone from bad to worse, and people are suffering beyond expectations,” he added.
PDP Chairman Optimistic
The Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Jigawa State, Babandi Gumel, says the party is optimistic about reclaiming power in the 2027 elections, citing growing public dissatisfaction with the ruling APC. Gumel said the PDP remains strongly rooted across the state and is benefiting from internal cracks within the APC. “There are issues within the APC in Jigawa, and the PDP is coming with force. Our chances are very high because we have a solid structure across the state,” he said. According to him, many Nigerians are frustrated by the current economic hardship and insecurity under the APC-led administration. “People are angry because of hunger and insecurity in the country. The promises made by the APC government have turned out negatively for many Nigerians, and voters are ready for change,” he stated. Gumel also dismissed concerns about the APC's incumbency advantage in Jigawa, where the current governor previously served as deputy governor. “One angle is the power of incumbency, but the other angle is the power of hunger. Nigerians are suffering, and that anger will reflect in the 2027 elections,” he said. On the PDP's preparedness, the chairman said the party has completed screening exercises for aspirants and is organizing its internal processes ahead of the polls. “We conducted a successful screening exercise, and our party members are united. We are already on the ground and will continue mobilisation from house to house,” he added.
