A new report has refuted claims that President Bola Tinubu is Nigeria's largest borrower since the return to democratic rule in 1999, asserting that available records do not support assertions that the current administration has borrowed more than all previous democratic administrations.
Report Findings on External Debt
The report by ThinkBusiness Africa Ltd, titled 'Who Borrowed Most? Nigeria's Presidential Debt Record 1999-2025', found that Nigeria's external debt rose by approximately $9.4 billion between May 2023 and December 2025. This compares with a $32.6 billion increase recorded during the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari.
According to the report, Nigeria's external debt stood at about $42.5 billion when Tinubu assumed office in May 2023 and rose to about $51.9 billion by December 2025. By comparison, external debt increased from about $10.3 billion in 2015 to $42.9 billion in 2023 during Buhari's eight-year tenure.
“The evidence, therefore, indicates that the largest increase in Nigeria's external debt stock in the democratic era occurred between 2015 and 2023,” the report said.
Impact of Exchange Rate Liberalisation
The report argued that much of the criticism directed at the current administration stems from the sharp increase in debt figures expressed in naira, which depreciated sharply following the exchange rate liberalisation in June 2023. It explained that because external debt obligations are contracted and repaid in foreign currency, dollar-denominated figures provide a more reliable basis of comparison across administrations than naira values.
The report noted that the approximately $42.5 billion external debt inherited by the Tinubu administration was valued at around N19.6 trillion under the previous exchange rate regime. Following the exchange rate adjustment, the same debt stock appeared significantly larger in terms of naira value.
“This increase did not arise because the government borrowed tens of trillions of naira in new external obligations. Rather, it reflected the translation effect of applying a weaker exchange rate to an existing stock of foreign-currency debt,” the report stated.
Debt Ledger by Administration
The report's debt ledger showed that former President Olusegun Obasanjo reduced external debt from $28.04 billion in 1999 to $2.11 billion in 2007, representing a decline of $25.93 billion. Under late President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, external debt rose by $1.39 billion, while former President Goodluck Jonathan recorded an increase of $3.8 billion. Buhari recorded the largest increase in external debt, with a rise of $32.6 billion between 2015 and 2023, while Tinubu's administration recorded an increase of $9.37 billion between 2023 and December 2025, less than 30 per cent of the former's accumulation.
Domestic Debt Trends
The report also examined domestic debt, providing additional context to the debate over the country's borrowing profile. According to the report, domestic debt declined from about $65.6 billion in the first quarter of 2023 to $59.1 billion by the end of 2025, representing a reduction of roughly $6.5 billion in dollar terms. This contrasted with an increase of around $11.6 billion recorded during the Buhari administration.
“When you put domestic and external debt together, total public debt rose by only about $2.7 billion in dollar terms between Q1 2023 and Q4 2025, even though the naira headline rose by roughly N109.4 trillion over the same period. Both figures are correct, but only the dollar measure reflects actual new borrowing,” the report said.
It further noted that part of the increase in domestic debt figures after 2023 reflected the securitisation and recognition of N23.9 trillion Ways and Means advances accumulated under the previous administration and later converted into government debt instruments. “These movements represent accounting reclassification and stock revaluation adjustments, not incremental fiscal borrowing flows,” it stated.
Fiscal Challenges Ahead
While disputing claims that Tinubu is Nigeria's biggest borrower, the report warned that the country faces a growing fiscal challenge arising from debt-service obligations. It said the major concern is no longer the size of the debt stock alone, but the rising cost of servicing debt, which continues to consume a substantial share of government revenue and limit resources available for development.
According to the report, debt-service obligations are increasingly constraining spending on roads, transport infrastructure, power projects, education, healthcare, security operations and social intervention programmes. “The country's debt-service burden places substantial pressure on public finances and limits the government's capacity to invest in infrastructure and human development,” it said.
The report concluded that discussions about Nigeria's debt profile should focus less on headline borrowing figures and more on debt sustainability, revenue mobilisation, fiscal discipline and refinancing strategies.
