Governor Lawal's Political Struggles Persist in Zamfara Despite Governance Gains
At a time when Governor Dauda Lawal of Zamfara is receiving praise for key policy initiatives that have enhanced governance in the state, the political climate in the insecurity-ravaged North-West region is proving to be his major obstacle, particularly within his new political stronghold, the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Defection to APC: A River Filled with Alligators
When political realities in the embattled main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) compelled Governor Dauda Lawal to defect to the All Progressives Congress (APC), it was akin to plunging into a river filled with alligators. Having depleted the ranks of the PDP in Zamfara, Lawal's entry into the ruling party has inevitably set him up for a fierce contest with entrenched political heavyweights. These include former governor and current senator Abdulaziz Yari; Minister of State for Defence Bello Matawalle; and former governor Sani Yerima. Each of these actors commands loyal political structures and grassroots influence, making the APC in Zamfara less of a unified platform and more of a battlefield of competing interests.
Beyond intra-party rivalry, the broader political landscape adds another layer of complexity. With the PDP weakened by internal crises and defections, and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) struggling to establish itself as a formidable opposition platform, the state's political space is gradually tilting towards a fragmented contest. In such a volatile environment, sustaining Governor Lawal's governance reforms may prove daunting.
Governance Achievements and Recognition
Recent indicators, however, suggest that the governor's governance efforts are beginning to yield measurable outcomes. Two days ago, Zamfara was ranked 15th on the 2025 Subnational Audit Efficacy (SAE) Index. According to the rating released by the Paradigm Leadership Support Initiative (PLSI), the state scored 42 per cent, outperforming 21 other states, including Lagos, Kano, and Oyo, in a ranking where the national average stood at 34.5 per cent.
PLSI explained that the index evaluates how effectively subnational governments implement policies and manage public finances. It draws data from audit institutions, public accounts committees, and Offices of the Accountant-General, while also incorporating contributions from the media and civil society organisations. For Zamfara, the improvement is significant. The state reportedly recorded a 133 per cent increase in audit efficiency, rising from 28th place in the 2022 ranking. This leap suggests a growing commitment to transparency, accountability, and fiscal discipline, marking a departure from the era of alleged profligacy that characterised previous administrations.
The recognition is not limited to audit performance. In a separate development, Governor Lawal was recently named Outstanding Governor of the Year at the Face of Africa Leadership Award 2026 held in London. According to a statement by his Media Aide, Sulaiman Bala Idris, the award, organised by Triangle Media International Magazine at its 10th annual lecture and ceremony at King's College London, was a testament to the governor's impactful governance and service delivery. Idris noted that the administration inherited an empty treasury but has remained committed to its Rescue Agenda, aimed at rebuilding critical sectors of the state. The agenda prioritises infrastructural renewal, institutional reforms, and improved public service delivery.
Battles Ahead: Insecurity and Intra-Party Contestation
Despite these achievements, the road to political survival appears fraught with challenges. Chief among them are insecurity and intra-party contestation—two factors that have historically shaped electoral outcomes in Zamfara. The governor appears fully aware of the security dimension. In recent statements, he has reiterated a policy of zero tolerance for banditry and criminality, insisting on a no-negotiation stance with armed groups. This approach, while popular among sections of the public, also places significant pressure on the administration to deliver tangible improvements in security.
The state Commissioner for Information and Culture, Mohammad Dantawasa, underscored this position, noting that insecurity continues to disrupt socio-economic activities, slow economic growth, and instil fear among residents. According to him, the administration remains resolute in addressing the challenge through a combination of strategic security measures and stakeholder engagement. He emphasised that protecting lives and property remains the government's top priority, with sustained efforts to restore peace across the state.
Yet, beyond security concerns lies an equally complex political terrain. Lawal's defection to the APC may have been driven by pragmatic considerations, but it has also placed him within a party structure defined by powerful interests and unresolved rivalries. Although Dantawasa described the governor's political realignment as being in the best interest of the Zamfara people, he did not address the implications for Lawal's second-term ambition. Within the APC, loyalty is often fluid, and alliances are shaped by calculations that extend beyond governance performance.
Suleman Tudu, Special Assistant on Media in the Office of the Secretary to the State Government, maintained that the administration remains focused on consolidating its achievements. According to him, the Rescue Administration will continue to build on its governance momentum, deepening reforms that promote accountability and sustainable development.
Factional Fault Lines Within the APC
Notwithstanding these assurances, the internal dynamics of the APC in Zamfara remain formidable. The party is widely regarded as dominant in the state, yet it remains deeply fragmented along factional lines. The roots of this fragmentation can be traced to the events leading up to the 2023 general elections. Bello Matawalle's defeat was largely attributed to internal divisions and anti-party activities, which undermined the APC's electoral strength. At the time, rival factions within the party openly worked against one another, resulting in a loss that many observers considered avoidable.
Today, despite claims of reconciliation, particularly between Yari and Matawalle, analysts argue that the underlying tensions have not been fully resolved. Instead, they have merely been suppressed, with the potential to resurface at critical moments. Currently, at least four identifiable blocs exist within the APC in Zamfara: the Yari faction, the Matawalle faction, the Aminu Sani Jaji group, and the political movement associated with Sani Abdullahi Shinkafi. Each of these blocs operates with a degree of autonomy, maintaining separate structures and loyalists.
The existence of these parallel power centres raises concerns about renewed anti-party activities. Political observers warn that, as seen in previous elections, unresolved grievances could once again manifest in sabotage, protest votes, or outright defections.
Lessons from History and Changing Voter Expectations
Zamfara's political history offers a cautionary tale. In 1999, internal crises within the PDP created an opening for Ahmad Sani Yerima to emerge as governor under the platform of the then All Peoples Party (APP). At the time, a bitter rivalry between Yahaya Abdulkareem and the late Ambassador MZ Anka over the PDP ticket weakened the party. The dispute escalated to the point where the party's national leadership had to intervene by organising a fresh primary election. Although Anka emerged as the candidate, Abdulkareem rejected the outcome and mobilised his supporters against the PDP. The resulting division proved costly, as the opposition capitalised on the disarray to secure victory.
That episode marked the beginning of a political trajectory in which the APC and its predecessors would maintain a strong foothold in the state. Today, a similar pattern appears to be unfolding within the APC itself. The party risks repeating the mistakes that once benefited it, particularly if internal disputes are not effectively managed.
Beyond party politics, there is a growing shift in voter expectations. For more than two decades, many residents of Zamfara have expressed frustration over the lack of tangible human development despite the state's natural resource wealth. Critics argue that successive administrations prioritised patronage over sustainable development, distributing vehicles, motorcycles, and cash to political supporters rather than investing in long-term socio-economic growth.
However, there are indications that this pattern is gradually changing. Increasing political awareness and economic hardship have made voters more discerning, with greater emphasis on accountability and service delivery. Some believe this shift played a role in the 2023 election, in which voters appeared less influenced by traditional patronage networks.
Governance Versus Politics and the Road to 2027
As Governor Lawal consolidates his position within the APC, two realities emerge. First, his performance in office provides a credible basis for seeking a second term. Second, his political future will depend largely on how effectively he navigates the complexities of his new party. Unlike his first term under the PDP, where he operated with relative autonomy, Lawal must now contend with a network of influential stakeholders whose interests may not always align with his reform agenda.
Managing these relationships will require a delicate balance between political accommodation and policy consistency. It will also test his ability to build consensus within a fragmented party structure. Ultimately, the 2027 governorship election in Zamfara is likely to be shaped by a combination of governance outcomes, security developments, and intra-party dynamics. While Lawal's achievements may strengthen his case, his political survival will hinge on his capacity to navigate what remains, in many respects, a river filled with alligators.
