In a detailed analysis of the recent military intervention in Nigeria's northwest, prominent peace and conflict analyst Bulama Bukarti has provided crucial context, challenging the initial framing of the operation. Bukarti, speaking from London, asserted that the United States airstrikes in Sokoto state were directed at local criminal bandits, not ISIS terrorists as publicly stated by US officials.
Clarifying the Targets and Rejecting Misleading Narratives
Bukarti, a respected human rights lawyer and analyst, addressed the incident in an interview with Al Jazeera, published on December 26, 2025. He pointed out a significant discrepancy between the US justification for the strikes and the reality on the ground. The US, under the direction of former President Donald Trump, framed the operation as targeting ISIS affiliates to protect Christians. However, Bukarti countered this, noting that Sokoto is a predominantly Muslim state, and local intelligence indicates the primary targets were entrenched criminal gangs.
He specifically identified a group known as the Lakurawa, which has reportedly crossed into Nigeria from the Sahel region since 2018, establishing camps in the northwest. "There is no significant ISIS presence in that part of Nigeria… what Americans are calling ISIS may actually be these local gangs," Bukarti observed. He also firmly rejected narratives portraying Christians as the sole or primary victims, calling it a "fundamental misrepresentation of the reality on the ground." He stressed that bandit attacks affect civilians of all faiths indiscriminately.
The Imperative of Sovereignty and Coordinated Strategy
The analyst raised important questions about the nature of Nigeria's cooperation with the US in this operation. While the Nigerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed the "precision hits" as part of existing security cooperation, Bukarti noted the government's description of a "joint effort" lacked clarity. He emphasized that any international military assistance must be conducted with full Nigerian consent, sovereignty, and deep intelligence coordination.
"Statements don’t go into details in these kinds of environments. What I hope happened was that the U.S. worked closely with the Nigerian government on intelligence, targeting, and execution," he stated. Bukarti warned that external assistance must align with Nigeria's own security priorities, not just respond to US political headlines or messaging.
Airstrikes Are Not a Silver Bullet for Nigeria's Crisis
While acknowledging that international support aimed at protecting lives is welcome, Bukarti issued a strong caution against over-reliance on aerial bombardments. He argued that such strikes, while potentially effective in the immediate term, cannot alone resolve Nigeria's multifaceted and protracted security challenges.
"We need sustained efforts on the ground, local capacity building, addressing grievances, and continuous military action. Bombing alone is not a solution," he concluded. For any future operations, he advised that targets should be the core operational strongholds of terrorist groups like Boko Haram in the Sambisa Forest and Lake Chad region, rather than just bandit camps.
Bukarti's analysis calls for greater transparency, a sustained and holistic strategy combining soft and hard power, and ultimately, for Nigeria to define and lead its own security needs with partners playing a supportive, not directive, role.
