The Super Eagles of Nigeria have received a sobering statistical forecast ahead of their campaign at the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations in Morocco. According to the renowned Opta supercomputer, the three-time champions have only a 7.3% chance of lifting the trophy, casting serious doubt on their title aspirations.
A Daunting Statistical Landscape
Data analytics giant Opta has placed Nigeria behind continental powerhouses Morocco, Egypt, Senegal, and Algeria in its pre-tournament predictions. This projection is particularly striking given Nigeria's impressive run to the final in the 2023 edition, where they fell 2-1 to hosts Ivory Coast under former coach Jose Peseiro.
The Super Eagles, who have already arrived in Fez to play all their group matches, face a tough path. The supercomputer's model suggests that despite boasting world-class attacking talents like Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman, other critical factors significantly undermine Nigeria's chances of a fourth continental crown.
Navigating a Treacherous Group Stage
Drawn in Group C alongside Tunisia, Uganda, and Tanzania, Nigeria's task begins with a finely balanced group phase. The Opta model gives the Super Eagles a 42.9% probability of topping the group, only marginally better than Tunisia's 40.1%. This slim margin highlights the precarious nature of their campaign from the outset, where every match will require careful navigation to secure a favourable knockout round draw.
The team, now led by Malian coach Eric Chelle, is seeking to add to Nigeria's previous AFCON triumphs in 1980, 1994, and 2013. However, the data presents a clear warning that success in Morocco is far from guaranteed.
Defensive Woes and Squad Challenges
A significant factor contributing to the pessimistic outlook is a defensive crisis. The retirement of captain and 2023 AFCON Player of the Tournament, William Troost-Ekong, from international football has left a massive void. This problem is compounded by injuries to key defenders Ola Aina and Benjamin Fredrick, leaving the backline dangerously thin.
The defensive responsibilities will now fall heavily on the shoulders of Calvin Bassey and Semi Ajayi. This combination of retirements and injuries has been a key input in the Opta simulations, resulting in Nigeria being ranked only fifth among the favourites.
Coach Eric Chelle has named a 28-man squad featuring 10 debutants for the continental showpiece. While this injects fresh energy, it also raises questions about experience and cohesion at the highest level.
Pressure and Expectations from the NFF
Despite the daunting statistics, the Nigeria Football Federation (NFF) has set a clear mandate for Coach Chelle: win the AFCON title. This target comes as a form of compensation for the nation after the Super Eagles' failure to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Nigerian football analyst Toritseju Williams has offered measured support for Chelle, acknowledging his decent results since taking over in January but cautioning against excessive pressure. "Nigeria is clearly one of the favourites due to our history in the competition," Williams noted, "but nobody should pressure Chelle to win it because we do not have the best team yet in Africa."
Former Nigeria international Mohammed Gambo has also weighed in, stating that the team's chances hinge largely on the tactical acumen of Coach Chelle. The Malian manager recently guided Nigeria to the 2025 Unity Cup victory, defeating Jamaica on penalties, offering a glimmer of hope and a winning mentality within the camp.
As the tournament kicks off on December 21, the Super Eagles stand at a crossroads. They must choose between succumbing to the cold, hard numbers of a supercomputer or drawing upon their rich history and individual brilliance to author a defiant underdog story in Morocco.
