Opta's supercomputer has updated its prediction for the UEFA Champions League winner following Paris Saint-Germain's thrilling 5-4 victory over Bayern Munich in the first leg of the semi-final at Parc des Princes.
Match Summary
Harry Kane opened the scoring for Bayern Munich from the penalty spot in the 17th minute. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia equalized for PSG seven minutes later. Joao Neves put PSG ahead in the 33rd minute, but Michael Olise drew Bayern level in the 41st minute. Ousmane Dembele scored in added time to give PSG a 3-2 lead at halftime.
In the second half, Kvaratskhelia scored his second goal in the 54th minute, and Dembele added another to make it 5-2. Bayern fought back with goals from Dayot Upamecano and Luis Diaz, but PSG held on for a 5-4 win.
Supercomputer Predictions
According to The Analyst, Opta's supercomputer now gives PSG a 58.25% chance of reaching the final and a 29.33% chance of winning a second consecutive Champions League title. Bayern Munich has a 41.75% chance of reaching the final and a 24.79% chance of winning.
In the other semi-final, Arsenal has a 72.14% chance of reaching the final and a 36.8% chance of winning their first title. Atletico Madrid has a 27.86% chance of reaching the final and a 9.08% chance of winning.
The second leg between PSG and Bayern Munich will be played next week, while Arsenal faces Atletico Madrid on Wednesday, April 30, 2026.
