Spain secured a 2-0 victory over France in the 2026 FIFA World Cup semi-final, booking their first final appearance since winning the tournament in 2010. The result ended France's hopes of reaching a third consecutive final and relegated them to the third-place playoff.
Spain's Path to the Final
La Roja's triumph at the semi-final stage marks a return to the World Cup final after a 16-year absence. Lamine Yamal once again outperformed Kylian Mbappe, echoing their previous encounters. Spain's last final appearance was in 2010, when they defeated the Netherlands to lift the trophy.
Remaining Contenders and Supercomputer Predictions
Opta's supercomputer, using thousands of simulations, has calculated the probabilities for the three remaining teams. According to The Analyst, Spain, already in the final, have a 55.59% chance of winning the World Cup. On the other side of the draw, England face Argentina in the second semi-final on July 15, 2026.
England are favored to beat Argentina, with a 52.28% probability of reaching their first World Cup final since 1966. If they face Spain, it would be a repeat of the Euro 2024 final, which Spain won. Argentina, the defending champions, have a 47.72% chance of progressing past England. However, even if they reach the final, Opta gives them only a 21.09% probability of retaining the title.
What This Means for France
France, after their semi-final defeat, will now compete in the third-place playoff. Their opponent will be the loser of the England vs Argentina match. The bronze medal match offers a chance for Les Bleus to salvage some pride after falling short of a third consecutive final appearance.
