The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has issued a stark warning that Nigeria could lose approximately N2.8 trillion in value chain activity within the first six to twelve months if the Customs and Excise Tariff (Consolidation) Act (Amendment) Bill 2025 is enacted into law.
MAN Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, expressed deep concern that the proposed tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) would trigger a cascade of economic losses, affecting everyone from factory workers in Lagos and Kano to sugarcane farmers in Benue and the countless roadside vendors who depend on the beverage trade for their livelihoods. He urged the Federal Government to adopt a balanced, evidence-based, and coordinated approach to excise taxation.
The warning comes as the CETA Bill 2025 seeks to shift excise taxation on SSBs from the current specific rate of N10 per liter to a percentage levy based on retail price. Ajayi-Kadir cautioned that such a move could undermine industrial growth, job creation, investor confidence, and broader macroeconomic stability. While reaffirming MAN's support for government revenue generation and public health objectives, he stressed that fiscal policy must remain predictable, context-specific, and grounded in empirical evidence to avoid unintended economic and social consequences.
“The agricultural value chain, particularly sugarcane growers operating under the Nigeria Sugar Master Plan (NSMP II), which the NAD sector actively supports through backward integration, begins to feel the withdrawal of off-take commitments. Conservative estimates place the near-term sectoral gross value added loss at between N600 billion and N1.2 trillion within the first six months alone, against a 2023 baseline of N14.3 trillion,” Ajayi-Kadir stated.
He further noted that PwC projections indicate that a 10 to 20 percent increase in excise duties alone could shrink sectoral employment from 1.5 million to 1.2 million workers or fewer by 2030. The jobs at risk are those that sustain Nigeria's working poor: factory operatives, truck drivers, market traders, kiosk owners, and smallholder farmers.
“The estimated value chain loss over the six to 12-month period following enactment falls between N2.5 trillion and N2.8 trillion. The NAD sector remains one of the most resilient pillars of Nigeria’s manufacturing, accounting for approximately 33 percent of manufacturing output and sustaining over 1.5 million direct and indirect jobs,” he concluded.
