The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has reported that global merchandise trade has remained resilient in the first half of 2026, despite headwinds from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and high energy prices. According to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer, rising demand for electronic components related to artificial intelligence (AI) investment has partly offset the negative impacts.
Goods Trade Barometer Reading
The Goods Trade Barometer, a composite leading indicator for merchandise trade, currently stands at 101.7. This value is down slightly from its January reading of 102.3 but remains above the baseline of 100, indicating that trade volumes are still above trend. Actual quarterly trade volumes have been above trend since the start of 2025.
Component Indices
Most component indices are near the baseline value of 100. The electronic components index stands at 105.5, firmly above trend, reflecting surging demand linked to AI investment. In contrast, the agricultural raw materials index (98.9) and automotive products index (99.8) are slightly below trend. The export orders index (100.5) is slightly above trend. Transport-related indices, including air freight (102.2) and container shipping (102.4), continue to signal expansion, albeit at a slower pace than earlier in the year.
WTO Forecasts
The WTO Secretariat's March Global Trade Outlook and Statistics (GTOS) report predicted merchandise trade growth of 1.9% in 2026 under a baseline scenario. Under a high energy price scenario reflecting headwinds from the Middle East conflict, growth is projected at 1.4%. Sustained investment in AI could add 0.5 percentage points to the growth rate.
Year-on-year growth in world merchandise trade volume rose sharply in Q1 2025 as importers accelerated purchases ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. Growth slowed later in the year but still exceeded expectations, driven by surging demand for AI-enabling goods.
