The Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AERE) has called on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) to ensure that Nigeria's revenue and macroeconomic gains translate into improved living conditions for households, including lower food prices, better wages, and stronger poverty reduction. The group made this known in a statement sent to Nairametrics on Thursday, praising the government for significant progress in revenue mobilisation and macroeconomic stabilisation, but stressing that recovery must move beyond headline indicators to deliver tangible benefits.
Revenue Growth and Macroeconomic Gains
AERE acknowledged that the NRS and President Tinubu deserved recognition for increased tax collections and improvements in several macroeconomic indicators. Citing an NRS internal report, the group noted that tax collections more than doubled from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion by July 2026, a surge of roughly 120%. The group attributed this improvement to the four tax reform laws, digitised collection, the overhaul of the revenue service, and measures to close tax evasion loopholes.
Further, AERE highlighted that Nigeria's debt-to-GDP ratio fell from 38% in 2023 to 35.5% in 2025 and a projected 32.3% in 2026, while gross external reserves increased from $33.22 billion at the end of 2023 to about $51.9 billion by July 2026. The group also cited improvements in the balance of payments, oil production, trade, capital importation, and the Nigerian Exchange market capitalisation.
Household Welfare Still Lagging
Despite these gains, AERE said they have not yet translated sufficiently into improved household welfare. The group cited National Bureau of Statistics data showing headline inflation at 15.91% in June 2026, with food inflation rising to 17.52%. It also referenced the World Bank's April 2026 Nigeria Development Update, which estimated that Nigeria's poverty rate rose to 63% in 2025, representing about 140 million people below the poverty line.
AERE described Nigeria as experiencing a "two-speed economy" where macroeconomic improvements are not felt equally across households. The group noted that the N70,000 minimum wage is worth about $47-$50 a month at an exchange rate of N1,400-N1,500 to the dollar, while market surveys cited by BusinessDay suggested that urban households require between N349,000 and N513,000 monthly for basic needs. The situation is more difficult because more than 90% of employment is informal, where minimum wage protections have limited reach.
Call for Action and Broader Economic Context
"Recovery is a relay race, not a photo finish," the organisation said, urging the government to ensure that the benefits of economic reforms reach households across the country. The group stressed that the baton must pass from macro stabilisation to micro wellbeing: "from reserves to stomachs, from ratios to rent, from trillion-naira headlines to the N18,000-a-month driver, the N70,000-a-month civil servant, and the 140 million Nigerians still waiting for the recovery to taste like something."
Nairametrics reported that Nigeria's GDP growth improved from 2.54% in Q3 2023 to 3.46% in Q4 2023, averaged 3.19% in 2024, and strengthened to 3.85% in 2025. In Q1 2026, GDP growth remained positive at 3.89%, bringing average quarterly growth between Q3 2023 and Q1 2026 to approximately 3.46%. Despite stronger revenue performance, public debt and debt servicing obligations have risen sharply. According to the Debt Management Office (DMO), total public debt stood at N87.38 trillion as of June 30, 2023, and by December 31, 2025, it had increased to N159.28 trillion.
Recently, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) said that the Nigeria Tax Act 2025 has yet to eliminate multiple taxes and levies imposed on manufacturers, with companies still facing visits from different tax authorities. In the Central Bank of Nigeria's July 2026 Business Expectations Survey, 70.8% of respondents identified high and multiple taxation as the biggest constraint to business operations, ahead of insecurity and high interest rates.
In its 2026 Fiscal Transparency Report released on Thursday, the US Department of State said Nigeria made no significant progress in addressing fiscal transparency deficiencies. The assessment covered January 1 to December 31, 2025, and evaluated 140 governments; 73 met the minimum requirements, while 67 did not, with Nigeria among those that failed. This follows concerns raised by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over Nigeria's fiscal reporting and financing arrangements.
