The Central Bank of Nigeria's Business Expectations Survey for September 2026 reveals that businesses anticipate modest naira appreciation against the dollar, with the official exchange rate holding firm at approximately N1,327.08 per dollar at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) window. The parallel market saw the dollar trading between N1,370 and N1,390, reflecting sustained demand for physical cash.
Naira Stability and Business Confidence in September
The naira averaged N1,329 per dollar across September, according to the CBN survey. The Business Confidence Index (BCI) came in at 13.4 points, indicating broad optimism among businesses about the macroeconomic environment. Respondents expressed expectations that the naira would remain stable and record modest appreciation against the dollar across various review periods.
Businesses attributed their positive outlook primarily to rising demand, which accounted for 29.3% of the factors driving optimism. Economic diversification contributed 18.9%, while improved access to finance added 13.5%. The CBN noted that the industry sector saw the largest improvement in business sentiment during the month.
Key Challenges Facing Businesses
Despite the upbeat currency outlook, businesses highlighted several pressures that could affect their operations and investment decisions. Multiple and high taxation ranked as the top constraint, scoring 67.1 index points. Insecurity came second at 66.2 points, followed by high interest rates at 64.3 points. An unfavourable political climate recorded 61.8 points, while high bank charges scored 61.5 points.
Competition was flagged at 60.2 points, and both unclear economic laws and an unfavourable economic climate each registered 58.7 points. Financial constraints stood at 57.5 points, while poor infrastructure recorded 55.0 points. These challenges underscore the complex operating environment for Nigerian businesses despite the positive currency outlook.
Regional Optimism and External Reserves
Businesses across most parts of Nigeria shared a positive near-term outlook. The North-East was the most optimistic region across the forecast periods, while the South-East was the only region that did not share the broadly positive near-term view.
In related news, Nigeria's external reserves reached $54.79 billion as of September 21, 2026, a 30.36% rise compared with $42.03 billion recorded on the same date in 2025. CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso said gross reserves stood at $55.25 billion as of September 18, 2026, the highest level in 18 years and sufficient to cover approximately 11.3 months of import costs. Analysts have warned that sharp rate cuts could weaken the appeal of naira assets and trigger fresh pressure on the foreign exchange market.
