Nigeria's much-trumpeted clean cooking and domestic gas utilisation campaign is currently being threatened by the ongoing Middle East crisis and market supply issues, as vulnerable families are turning to charcoal following a 67 per cent rise in the price of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and N362 billion monthly bills.
LPG, otherwise called cooking gas, which sold for less than N1,500 per kilogramme last month, has soared across the country, hitting about N2,500 per kilogramme yesterday in Lagos, representing a 67 per cent additional cost while compounding the existing high cost of energy.
This comes as the Nigerian Association of LPG Marketers (NALPGAM) accused refiners of distorting the market, while the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, as well as Ardova Plc (formerly Forte Oil Plc), are being accused of hoarding the product. Although Ardova disputed the claim while NNPC remained mum, most residents, who spoke with The Guardian, said they are resorting to charcoal, which sells for about N5,500 per bag, to cushion the crisis.
LPG Consumption and Clean Cooking Gap
While LPG consumption has risen from about 250,000 metric tonnes in 2014 to roughly 1.5 million tonnes in 2024, the federal government's long-standing target of between five and six million tonnes per year remained a mirage and has now been moved to 2030. Per capita consumption stands at about seven kilogrammes yearly, compared with a global average of between 25 and 30 kilogrammes, an indication of the depth of Nigeria's clean cooking gap.
Last month, about 4.8 million kilogrammes of LPG were consumed daily in the country at a total cost of N224 billion. With the price now N2,500 per kg, residents face a financial burden of N362 billion. Although prices stood at N1,700 in some parts of Abuja yesterday and N1,800 in Kano, some retailers in Lagos were selling at N2,500 per kilogramme.
Across Lagos, Abuja, Ilorin and other parts of the country, residents told The Guardian that the cost of refilling cylinders has become increasingly difficult to sustain, forcing households to ration usage, delay refills or explore cheaper alternatives.
Households Share Their Struggles
Adeola Akinyanju, a resident of Ejigbo, said she had relied exclusively on cooking gas for over eight years due to its convenience and cleanliness, but recent price increases have changed her routine. "Before, once the gas finished, I would refill immediately. Now, I have to plan for it. Sometimes I delay refilling because other expenses come first. We still use gas, but we now keep charcoal as backup, especially for meals that take longer to cook," she said.
A resident of Ilorin, Serah Ajiboye, said she has resorted to charcoal, disclosing that buying 25 kilogrammes of charcoal for N5,500 offers affordability. Similarly, Aisha Ibrahim in Mushin noted that her household now alternates between LPG and charcoal to cope with rising costs. "I don't like charcoal because of the smoke and stress, but we don't have much choice. The cost of gas has seriously affected us. Many people in my area are doing the same, some are even going back to firewood," she said.
For small businesses, particularly food vendors, the impact is even more pronounced, as energy costs directly affect profitability. A bulk LPG trader, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to her direct business relationships with major suppliers, described the situation as "a survival-of-the-fittest market". According to her, while imports are not restricted, pricing strategies by dominant players often discourage participation. "Depot owners import in dollars, but within days of arrival, prices may be adjusted in a way that makes their products uncompetitive. That discourages imports," she said.
She alleged that some suppliers prioritise internal distribution over open market sales, further tightening supply. "I tracked NNPC cargoes and tried to buy, but after weeks, the products were diverted instead of being sold to marketers," she alleged. The trader added that supply to bulk buyers has dropped to near zero in recent weeks, forcing many operators to shut down. "My stations have not sold gas in two weeks. Trucks are idle because there is no supply. It is a terrible situation," she said.
A food vendor in Mushin, Adebayo Kudirat, explained that the increase in LPG prices has forced her to rethink her cooking strategy. "Gas is still better because it is faster and cleaner, but it is expensive now. I use charcoal for foods that take longer to cook and reserve gas for quick meals. Customers don't always understand when prices go up, but cooking costs are now a major issue," she said.
Market Distortions and Refinery Role
Some marketers blamed Dangote Refinery for creating the current crisis as they insisted that its supply to the market distorted and created losses for importers, forcing them to halt importation, only for the refinery to stop supplying the market. Dangote Refinery, in a letter addressed to NALGAM and sighted by The Guardian, clarified that supplying LPG to the domestic market is not a core aspect of its operations. The company explained that LPG is largely treated as a by-product of its refining process and is typically upgraded into higher-value derivatives. While some volumes are allocated to the local market, it noted that such decisions come at a cost to production efficiency and profitability. The refinery further stated that it did not position domestic LPG supply as a central focus of the facility from inception. Consequently, the company sought to distance itself from the current supply shortfall, maintaining that LPG distribution to the domestic market was never intended to be a primary component of its business model.
The pressure is also reshaping lifestyle choices among younger Nigerians, as Ayomide Oladosu, a student in Yaba, said he now cooks less frequently. "Sometimes it is cheaper to buy food than to cook. Gas is expensive, and I cannot switch to charcoal where I live, but I understand why others are doing it," he said.
In Isolo, Olawunmi Ajayi said households are becoming more cautious with usage. "We no longer cook freely. Everything is calculated. I cook once a day now because refilling gas is expensive. Nobody wants to waste it," she said. For some families, the shift away from LPG has been more drastic. A mother of four in Ikotun revealed that her household had, at one point, completely abandoned cooking gas. "We stopped using gas entirely because it became too expensive. We relied on charcoal and firewood. It was stressful, especially for the children, because of the smoke. We later returned to gas, but now we are thinking of going back again," Ajayi said.
Structural Challenges and Expert Views
Beyond households, the crisis reflects deeper structural challenges in Nigeria's LPG market, including supply constraints, import disruptions and pricing inefficiencies. Managing Director of Rainoil Limited, Emmanuel Omuojine, attributed the price surge to a combination of global and domestic factors, including supply disruptions, rising logistics costs and market constraints. According to him, global LPG supply has been affected by geopolitical developments, which have altered traditional trade flows and increased competition for cargoes. "Asia, particularly India, remains a major consumer of LPG. Recent disruptions have redirected supply flows, with the United States increasing exports to Asia. This has raised premiums globally, especially for import-dependent countries like Nigeria," he said.
Omuojine explained that Nigeria consumes about 1.6 million metric tonnes of LPG yearly, with imports historically accounting for around 40 per cent of supply. However, imports have declined significantly in recent months, at times dropping to near zero, forcing reliance on domestic production, which remains insufficient to meet demand. "The issue is not that there is no supply, but that supply is not adequate or consistent. Domestic production continues, but it is not enough to meet national demand," he said. He also noted that rising freight and shipping costs have increased landing costs, making imports less attractive for marketers. "At some point, the landing cost exceeded domestic prices by about N300,000 per metric tonne. That makes imports commercially unviable," he added.
Despite the challenges, Omuojine expressed optimism that supply conditions may improve with the arrival of additional cargoes, particularly from the NLNG. "We expect some easing in supply, but prices may not return to previous levels immediately," he said.
However, industry stakeholders argue that the crisis is not solely driven by global factors but also by local market dynamics. The situation has been compounded by concerns raised by the Nigerian Association of LPG Marketers (NALPGAM), which recently alerted stakeholders to erratic supply and rising prices. According to the association, marketers now pay between N23 million and N26 million for a 20-metric-tonne cargo, depending on location, a development it described as unsustainable. NALPGAM warned that the crisis is eroding gains made in Nigeria's clean energy transition, as households and businesses revert to traditional fuels.
Industry expert Ifeoluwa Oyinloye noted that while domestic production has improved, pricing remains tied to international benchmarks, limiting affordability. "Even locally produced LPG is sold at near-import parity. That keeps prices high and reduces the benefit of local production," she said. She added that inconsistent supply patterns have created uncertainty, discouraging importers from bringing in cargoes. "The issue is not just that of supply shortage but inconsistency. Importers are cautious because of the risk of sudden price changes," she said.
Energy Economist, Prof Wumi Iledare, said the surge in Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) prices is not only troubling due to its scale but also because it is forcing vulnerable households to abandon clean cooking fuels for cheaper alternatives such as charcoal and firewood. "The inevitable consequence is a return to charcoal and firewood, with adverse health and environmental outcomes," he said. According to him, the price spike reflects a deeper structural issue within the market. Declining imports, combined with insufficient domestic supply, have created a supply gap that is driving up prices. "If imports are declining while domestic supply is insufficient to bridge the gap, the market is simply signalling a supply imbalance. Scarcity raises prices," Iledare noted.
The development is undermining Nigeria's push for clean energy adoption and threatens to reverse gains made in promoting LPG as a safer and more environmentally friendly cooking fuel. Despite growing calls for government intervention, Iledare cautioned against blanket subsidies, arguing that they may not address the root of the problem. Instead, he urged the government to focus on boosting domestic LPG production, maintaining a competitive market environment, and removing bottlenecks across the supply chain.
