The Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA) has projected Nigeria’s current account surplus to widen to $8.69 billion in the third quarter of 2026, up from the $7.54 billion surplus recorded in the second quarter, attributing the expected improvement to lower import demand and persistently elevated crude oil prices.
The projection, contained in FMDA’s September 2026 Monthly Market Report, noted that the Q2 current account surplus had already surpassed its earlier forecast of $6.12 billion. FMDA stressed that the $8.69 billion figure remains a projection pending the release of official Q3 data, even as improving trade balances, higher oil prices and rising external reserves point to a stronger external position.
Q3 surplus projection follows strong Q2 performance
Nigeria’s current account position has strengthened through 2026, rising from $1.40 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $4.98 billion in Q1 2026 and $7.54 billion in the second quarter. FMDA expects that trend to continue in Q3, supported by lower import demand and elevated crude oil prices.
The association said the Q2 performance was already stronger than it had previously anticipated. “Nigeria’s current account surplus strengthened further in Q2 2026 to $7.54 billion, surpassing our earlier projection of $6.12 billion,” FMDA stated.
“By the time Q3 2026 data is released, we expect the surplus to widen further to $8.69 billion, buoyed by lower import demand, and persistently elevated crude oil prices,” the report added.
Trade balance and remittances improve
The trade balance similarly increased from $1.18 billion in Q4 2025 to $5.45 billion in Q1 and $9.22 billion in Q2, while remittances improved from $5.28 billion to $5.49 billion over the comparison period.
These improvements reflect a broader strengthening of Nigeria’s external position, with the current account surplus trajectory aligning with rising reserves and a firmer naira.
Reserves rise as naira appreciates
The stronger external position has coincided with rising reserves and an appreciating naira. Gross external reserves increased by approximately $1.11 billion, or 2.07%, to $54.92 billion at the end of September from $53.81 billion in August.
FMDA attributed the naira’s performance primarily to stronger FX fundamentals, including improved oil receipts and sustained market confidence. The association reported a 1.93% appreciation in the naira during September, with the NFEM rate at N1,327.31/$ and the parallel-market rate at N1,391.55/$.
A separate measure showed the official exchange rate closing September at N1,329.16/$ from N1,332.94/$ at the end of August, representing a more modest 0.28% appreciation.
Average Brent crude increased 14.43% during September to $99.95 per barrel amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The report nevertheless cited an EIA forecast for Brent to moderate towards $90 per barrel in the second half of 2026 before declining further to $74 in 2027 as production recovers.
The differing exchange-rate measures notwithstanding, FMDA’s assessment points to improved FX fundamentals and stronger oil receipts as important supports for the naira and external reserves.
Dangote IPO FX impact remains limited
FMDA also cautioned against attributing the recent improvement in FX conditions primarily to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO. The association said the N2.15 trillion offer may have generated investor interest and some pre-positioning flows, but significant foreign-currency conversion is expected only after allotment.
This means any larger FX effect from foreign participation in the offer has yet to become clearly visible in the data. “While the Dangote IPO may have contributed marginally through increased investor interest and pre-positioning flows, its direct impact on FX liquidity remains limited for now, as significant foreign currency conversion is expected only after allotment,” FMDA noted.
The outlook also comes as the Monetary Policy Committee reduced the Monetary Policy Rate by 350 basis points to 23% in September, while FMDA projects financial-system liquidity inflows to decline 14.82% to N13.25 trillion in October from N15.556 trillion in September.
With official Q3 current-account data yet to be released, analysts will likely focus on FMDA’s $8.69 billion projection to see whether the strengthening of Nigeria’s external position continues as oil prices eventually moderate and if post-allotment FX impact from the Dangote IPO could actually become a boost to FX earnings in Q3.
