Fresh questions have emerged over claims that approximately N3 trillion leaves Nigeria annually as capital flight through the airtime credit and data advance market, prompting industry stakeholders to urge greater transparency around figures used to support government policy.
The controversy followed media reports suggesting that regulatory efforts to open the market to indigenous financial technology firms were partly driven by concerns that a dominant foreign operator had allegedly repatriated as much as N3 trillion yearly in profits from Nigeria. However, industry observers argue that the claim appears difficult to reconcile with publicly available estimates of the market's size.
Market Size Estimate Questioned
Chairman of the Association of Licensed Telecoms Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), Gbenga Adebayo, recently described the airtime credit ecosystem as a market worth between N300 billion and N400 billion annually. He warned that ongoing regulatory disputes were threatening a critical financial lifeline relied upon by millions of Nigerians.
According to Adebayo, "The airtime credit market serves as an informal credit mechanism for millions of Nigerians, particularly traders, artisans, and small-scale entrepreneurs who depend on short-term airtime advances to sustain daily economic activity in the absence of accessible formal credit. The market is estimated to be worth between N300 billion and N400 billion annually."
The estimate has since become a central reference point in discussions surrounding the sector, with analysts questioning how a market of that size could generate annual profit repatriation figures reportedly running into trillions of naira.
Call for Data Transparency
One analyst familiar with the telecommunications sector said economic claims used to support major policy interventions should be accompanied by verifiable data. "When figures of such magnitude enter public discourse, stakeholders naturally expect the underlying methodology to be disclosed. Transparency is important because policy decisions often flow from those numbers," the analyst said.
The debate comes amid an ongoing legal dispute over the Digital, Electronic, Online or Non-Traditional Consumer Lending (DEON) Regulations 2025. The Wireless Application Service Providers Association of Nigeria (WASPAN), which instituted Suit No. FHC/L/CS/760/2026 before the Federal High Court in Lagos, has maintained that recent reports contained claims that misrepresented both the litigation and the structure of the industry.
Legal Dispute and Regulatory Uncertainty
According to the association, the court granted interim orders restraining enforcement of key aspects of the DEON framework pending determination of the substantive suit. WASPAN also expressed concern over reports suggesting that market restructuring activities were continuing despite the existence of a subsisting court order and a previously announced suspension of the framework.
Meanwhile, the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) has publicly distanced itself from reports suggesting it participated in submissions to the Presidency regarding the selection of local fintech firms for participation in the market. In a statement signed by its Director of Corporate Affairs, Ondaje Ijagwu, the commission said it was "not aware of, and was not involved in, the claims attributed to it in the report absolutely."
The commission further reiterated that implementation and enforcement of the DEON Regulations remain suspended following service of an ex parte order of the Federal High Court. "As a law-abiding public institution, FCCPC remains bound by the court order to suspend enforcement of the regulation pending the determination of the substantive case," the commission stated.
Broader Implications for Business Confidence
Earlier, Adebayo had described the dispute as extending beyond a routine disagreement between agencies, saying: "What is happening in the airtime credit market is not simply a dispute between regulators. It is a test of whether the structures that underpin business confidence in this country are functioning as they should."
With the substantive matter expected to return before the Federal High Court next month, attention is likely to remain focused on both the legal issues surrounding the DEON framework and the economic assumptions being advanced in support of proposed reforms to Nigeria's airtime lending market.
