The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has projected that Nigeria could become the world's fifth most powerful economy within the next 50 years if West African nations strengthen regional trade and economic integration. The forecast was presented by Dr. Kalilou Sylla, Head of the ECOWAS Department of Economic Affairs and Agriculture, during the 2026 First Ordinary Session of the ECOWAS Parliament in Abuja.
Forecast Based on UN and University Studies
Dr. Sylla stated that forecasts from the United Nations and several international universities indicate significant economic growth for some West African countries in the coming decades. According to him, Nigeria is expected to rise into the top five global economies within half a century, while Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire could rank among the world's 15 richest nations in the next 25 years. He also claimed that Côte d'Ivoire could eventually overtake France economically within 70 years, though this assertion is likely to attract debate given France's current economic size and global influence.
Regional Trade Over Western Markets
Sylla emphasized that Nigeria's economic future would depend more on stronger trade ties within West Africa than on markets in Europe or the United States. "It is not the American or English markets that will let the Nigerian market grow, but the sub-regional markets," he told lawmakers. He urged Nigerian authorities to develop a clearer economic strategy for the West African region, especially regarding the movement of goods and market access. "If Nigeria does not establish a clear policy for West Africa, nothing will change," Sylla said. "We cannot be the fifth most powerful country in the world in fifty years without having a clear economic interest for West Africa regarding the transfer of goods."
Intra-Regional Trade Growth
The commissioner highlighted that intra-regional trade within ECOWAS has surged to 40% over the last four years, proving that African markets, rather than Western ones, will be the primary drivers of Nigeria's expansion. "That means it is possible. We can move faster, but we are not yet there," he said. Despite the optimistic forecasts, Sylla criticized regional institutions for failing to move at the same pace as businesses and citizens already driving cross-border trade within West Africa. "We are working very far from the ECOWAS citizens; the people are ahead, and we as community institutions are lagging behind," he said.
Trade Barriers and Market Access
The commissioner further complained about trade barriers across the region, noting that neighboring countries still struggle to fully access the Nigerian market despite Nigeria's dominant economic position in West Africa. Nigeria currently remains Africa's largest economy by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and plays a major role in regional banking, exports, and trade activities. Nigerian banks and companies have also expanded operations across several ECOWAS countries over the last decade.
ECOWAS Parliament Session
The ECOWAS Parliament session, held from May 4 to May 17 in Abuja, focused on economic cooperation, governance, and regional trade at a time when many West African countries are battling inflation, political instability, and pressure from slowing global economic growth. The projection comes as President Bola Tinubu, at an AU gathering, also echoed the possibility of Nigeria becoming the fifth-richest nation in the next 50 years.
