Special Adviser on Information and Strategy Bayo Onanuga has again dismissed claims that Nigerians are experiencing economic hardship under President Bola Tinubu, despite data showing rising poverty and inflation. In a recent statement, Onanuga labelled critics of the government's economic policies as "economic illiterates." However, an analysis of key economic indicators reveals a starkly different picture.
Naira Depreciation and Inflation Surge
Before the Tinubu administration took office on 29 May 2023, the official exchange rate was about ₦464 per US dollar, while the parallel market rate was around ₦750 to ₦775 per dollar. By early 2024, the naira briefly traded above ₦1,500 per dollar, approaching ₦1,900 in some markets, before stabilising around the current ₦1,400 mark. This depreciation has driven up the cost of imported goods, fuelling inflation.
Petrol prices also soared after President Tinubu announced the removal of the fuel subsidy during his inaugural speech. The regulated pump price jumped from approximately ₦185–₦210 per litre to ₦488–₦500 per litre within days, and has continued to rise. The combined effect of naira depreciation and fuel price hikes has eroded disposable incomes and increased the cost of living for millions of Nigerians.
Poverty and Food Insecurity Worsen
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest report on Nigeria, stated that "conditions for many Nigerians remain difficult." The IMF noted that "poverty reached 63 percent (national poverty line), and 27 million Nigerians are estimated to have faced food insecurity in the fall of 2025." These figures contradict Onanuga's assertion that the hardship narrative is exaggerated.
Onanuga has a history of downplaying economic hardship. In September 2016, during the Buhari administration, he used a Facebook post to question media reports of hardship, citing his daughter's observation that a Lagos-to-London Virgin Atlantic flight was full. He called for the media to conduct a "reality check" and avoid "over-sensationalising so-called hardship."
Reforms Necessary but Painful
Economists agree that the reforms undertaken by the Tinubu government—such as removing the fuel subsidy and unifying exchange rates—were necessary to correct long-standing distortions. However, they also acknowledge that such reforms come with short-term pain. The concept of a "time lag" means that the benefits of reforms, such as increased investment and productivity, will take time to materialise—possibly beyond one electoral cycle.
In the meantime, the immediate impact on inflation and consumption has been negative. The government attempted to cushion the blow by increasing the national minimum wage in July 2023. However, wage increases without corresponding gains in productivity or supply of goods and services can fuel further inflation. Moreover, a large proportion of Nigeria's workforce operates in the informal sector, where minimum wage laws are not enforced, leaving many workers without any protection.
Danger of Ignoring Economic Realities
Critics argue that Onanuga's dismissal of hardship is dangerous for policy-making. If the government relies on models that ignore the downsides of its policies, it may fail to implement necessary palliatives or additional reforms. The IMF has called for further measures to embed the gains from price discovery, including reducing bureaucracy, promoting market-led outcomes, and enforcing ethical regulation focused on consumer welfare.
Uddin Ifeanyi, a journalist and retired civil servant, wrote that it is "remarkable that Mr Onanuga's modelling of the domestic economy cannot see any of the downsides of his government's policies. But it is by far more dangerous for the economy's outlook, if models such as his make up the counsel that the Tinubu government relies on in its decision making."
