The fourth step in the Tinubunomics reform sequence, the Revenue Anchor, focuses on structural sustainability after addressing fiscal bleeding and market price discovery. This pillar emphasises revenue discipline and digitisation to transform Nigeria's tax system.
The Leakage Economy
Nigeria's pre-reform revenue framework suffered from three defects: multiplicity of taxes (over 60 levies), analog collection enabling diversion, and opacity of Government Owned Enterprises (GOEs) that remitted only a fraction of revenues. The reform diagnostic concluded that raising tax rates would be counterproductive, so the strategy shifted to vertical efficiency and horizontal expansion.
Digitisation as a Fiscal Weapon
Technology is used to automate source deduction and remittance, reducing human discretion. Integrating the Treasury Single Account with GOE payment platforms ensures instant treasury remittance. This algorithmic governance yielded non-oil revenue gains in 2024, indicating funds were previously intercepted.
Tax Harmonisation and the Laffer Curve
Streamlining over 60 taxes to about eight core taxes applies the Laffer Curve theory, which posits that excessive taxation reduces revenue by discouraging activity. Eliminating nuisance taxes reduces business friction, encouraging formalisation and voluntary compliance.
This reform series is adapted from a peer-reviewed research paper on reform sequencing under democratic stress.
