International crude oil prices have surged to $115.18 per barrel, raising the prospect of another round of petrol price increases in Nigeria. Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other depot owners currently sell Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, at ₦1,350 per litre at their gantries, and rising replacement costs could force them to review their rates.
Although no fresh price adjustment has been announced, the sustained climb in crude prices is expected to pressure refiners and importers as procurement costs increase. This development threatens to add further strain to households, transport operators, and businesses already grappling with high energy costs.
Crude Oil Surges to Five-Month High
According to Oilprice.com, Brent crude climbed 1.8% to $115.18 per barrel on Friday, reaching its highest level in five months. Similarly, the United States West Texas Intermediate benchmark rose 2% to $101.56 per barrel as renewed geopolitical tensions heightened fears of global supply disruptions.
Reuters reported that Brent touched $115.16 per barrel, its highest level since May 4, putting the benchmark on course for a third consecutive weekly gain. The rally followed growing concerns over possible renewed military strikes involving the United States and Iran, alongside attacks on critical energy infrastructure in the Middle East. Market participants fear that further escalation could disrupt crude production, exports, and international shipping routes.
Middle East Tensions Fuel Supply Concerns
The latest increase followed reports of attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants targeting energy facilities and other infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Reuters reported that Saudi Aramco evacuated personnel from its headquarters in Dhahran amid heightened security concerns.
A drone attack targeting the Shaybah oil field reportedly killed two people, while another attack on King Fahd International Airport in Dammam caused additional casualties. United States President Donald Trump also heightened market uncertainty after indicating that Washington was not negotiating with Iran and suggesting further developments could occur soon. Meanwhile, Iranian military authorities said the country's armed forces were prepared for further confrontation.
Of particular concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic shipping corridor through which a substantial proportion of internationally traded oil normally passes. Further disruptions could increase shipping, insurance, and crude procurement costs.
Dangote, Depot Owners Face Fresh Pricing Pressure
For Nigeria, the international crude rally could translate into higher petrol prices as refiners and importers adjust to rising supply costs. Dangote Petroleum Refinery previously increased its petrol gantry price from ₦1,265 to ₦1,350 per litre, effective September 12, representing an increase of ₦85, Punch reported.
With crude prices climbing further, another adjustment remains possible, depending on procurement costs, exchange rates, and market conditions. Independent depot owners could also review their prices as the cost of replacing existing inventories rises. However, the timing and scale of any increase remain uncertain.
Nigerians Brace for Higher Transport Costs
A fresh petrol price increase could worsen transportation expenses, food distribution costs, and operating expenses for businesses dependent on petrol-powered generators. Commercial transport operators may also pass higher fuel costs to passengers, placing additional pressure on household budgets.
While rising crude prices could improve Nigeria's oil export earnings, consumers remain exposed to higher domestic fuel costs. For now, attention will remain on Dangote Refinery and petroleum depot operators as marketers assess whether the latest crude rally will translate into another increase at filling stations.
Legit.ng earlier reported that Nigeria’s estimated petrol import parity price climbed to N1,253.40 per litre on October 19, up from N1,246.36 on October 16, according to data from the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN). The N7.04 rise represents a 0.56% increase in the spot import parity price at the ASPM jetty in Apapa, as captured in MEMAN’s Energy Bulletin.
