Oil companies in Nigeria exported approximately 80 percent of the country's crude oil production in the first quarter of 2026, despite increasing demand from domestic refineries. According to the latest data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), out of 139.93 million barrels of crude oil produced in the first three months of the year, only 28.5 million barrels, or 20.1 percent, were supplied to local refineries, including the 650,000-barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery.
Export Dominance Continues
This means that 111.43 million barrels, representing nearly 80 percent of total production, were exported despite the country's expanding domestic refining capacity. The development occurred even though the Commission allocated 61.9 million barrels for local refining under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) framework, while producers collectively offered to supply 68.7 million barrels during the quarter.
Monthly Breakdown
According to the NUPRC, oil companies produced 50.45 million barrels in January, but only 9.2 million barrels were supplied to local refineries. In February, total crude oil production stood at 41.93 million barrels, while domestic refiners received 9.1 million barrels, representing about 22 percent of total output. Similarly, in March, crude oil production rose to 47.93 million barrels, but only 10.1 million barrels were delivered to local refineries, leaving 37.83 million barrels for export.
DCSO Performance
A breakdown of the DCSO performance showed that in January, the Commission allocated 22.6 million barrels to domestic refiners following consultations with stakeholders, including crude oil producers. Producers exceeded the target by offering 25.3 million barrels, 11.9 percent above the allocation, but actual supply to local refineries stood at only 9.2 million barrels.
In February, the Commission allocated 20.5 million barrels for domestic refining, while producers offered 19.8 million barrels, falling short of the target by 700,000 barrels. In March, DCSO allocations stood at 18.8 million barrels, while producers offered 23.6 million barrels, exceeding the target by 4.8 million barrels.
Pricing Disputes Blamed
The Commission attributed the persistent gap between crude volumes offered and actual deliveries mainly to pricing disagreements between producers and domestic refiners. According to the NUPRC, the current supply arrangement operates on a “willing buyer, willing seller” basis, which continues to influence transaction outcomes and supply performance. “However, actual supply to local refineries was 28.5 million barrels, translating to a supply conversion rate of 36-46 percent as of the end of the first quarter (Q1) 2026,” the Commission stated.
Dangote Refinery Relies on Imports
Industry data showed that the Dangote Refinery increasingly relied on imported crude oil in 2025 due to inadequate domestic supply, importing millions of barrels from the United States, Brazil, Angola, and other countries to sustain operations.
