A new analysis by The Nation newspaper, published on Sunday, October 18, 2026, has examined the political landscape in five key states—Kano, Adamawa, Bauchi, Benue, and Kwara—ahead of the 2027 presidential election. The report assesses how party structures, defections, and the influence of prominent politicians could shape voter behaviour, with President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), and Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) all positioning for the contest.
Kano, Adamawa, and Bauchi in Focus
Kano, with about 5.9 million registered voters across 44 local government areas, is identified as a critical battleground. The report notes that the relationships among Tinubu, Obi, and former Kano governor Rabiu Kwankwaso—whose performance under the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) in 2023 demonstrated the power of local political structures—will likely shape how the state votes. The projection for Kano is a contest between Tinubu and the Obi/Kwankwaso alliance.
In Adamawa, Atiku won convincingly in 2023, polling 417,611 votes against Tinubu's 182,881, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission. However, his move from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the ADC now tests whether he can hold his support base under a different party. Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri's defection to the APC, along with thousands of his supporters, has strengthened the ruling party's position in the state. The influence of National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu is also highlighted as a factor to watch. The projection for Adamawa is a fierce contest between Atiku and Tinubu.
Bauchi tells a similar story of shifting alliances. Atiku carried the state in 2023 with 426,607 votes to Tinubu's 316,694, but Governor Bala Mohammed's exit from the PDP for the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) has complicated the picture. Mohammed is expected to back Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde, the APM's presidential candidate, raising questions about the fate of Atiku's former support base. The APC, meanwhile, is building its campaign around figures including former House of Representatives Speaker Yakubu Dogara and Minister of Health Professor Muhammad Ali Pate. The projection for Bauchi is that Tinubu and Atiku are clear favourites.
Benue and Kwara: Party Organisation Key
In Benue, the report identifies the APC, PDP, and ADC as the main parties to watch, with the extent of their mobilisation likely to determine the outcome. The projection for Benue is that Tinubu's APC is well entrenched and far ahead. In Kwara, the APC has held a dominant position since the O to Ge movement of 2019, and the newspaper notes that the actions of allies of former Senate President Bukola Saraki and aggrieved APC members could affect how votes are distributed. The projection for Kwara is that the APC will convincingly win the presidential election in the state.
Mohammed Acknowledges Tinubu's Security Intervention
Governor Bala Mohammed also acknowledged Tinubu's intervention in Bauchi's security challenges, saying: "When we were almost overrun by bandits, nobody was coming to our aid. I went to him, and he responded in spite of my being in the opposition." He added that Tinubu approved two military battalions in Alkaleri and Tafawa Balewa local government areas.
The newspaper's assessments reflect the political situation as of October 18, 2026, and do not predict the eventual outcome of the election. The projections for the 2027 presidential election in the five states are: Kano—Tinubu versus Obi/Kwankwaso; Adamawa—Atiku and Tinubu in fierce contest; Bauchi—Tinubu and Atiku are clear favourites; Benue—Tinubu's APC is well entrenched and far ahead; Kwara—APC to convincingly win the presidential election in the state.
