Senator Abdulaziz Yari, Director-General of the All Progressives Congress (APC) Presidential Campaign Council, has declared that President Bola Tinubu holds an advantage of over 20 states heading into the 2027 general elections. The former Zamfara State governor made the remarks after a meeting with Tinubu at the State House in Abuja, where he said the campaign leadership and the President had agreed on a timetable for state visits.
Yari Dismisses Atiku and Obi as Threats
Yari was responding to questions about whether Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) pose a genuine threat to Tinubu's re-election. He argued that neither opposition candidate can match the President's geographical spread across the country.
"Can the ADC candidate today in the southern part of the country beat his chest and say he has control of one state in the South? And I don't think Peter Obi, who used to be my colleague, can beat his chest and say he has control of one state in northern Nigeria," Yari said.
Electoral Geography: The North-South Balance
Yari framed his argument around electoral geography, saying no candidate can reach the presidency without support spread across both the North and the South. He went further: "This calculation shows us that even if you have control of 80 per cent of the South, if you don't have anything in the North, you cannot make it. If you have 80 per cent control of the North, if you don't have any state in the South, you cannot make it."
To back his point, Yari recalled the 2011 presidential election, when the late former President Muhammadu Buhari dominated the North but failed to win nationally. "Look at Buhari, of blessed memory. He had control of over 70 per cent at that time, over 11 states in the North, and had no control of one in the South. He couldn't make it all the way," he said.
Tinubu's Estimated State Control
By contrast, Yari put Tinubu's current reach at more than 10 states in the South and more than 10 in the North, placing him well above the constitutional threshold for a presidential victory. "And today, I'm sure Asiwaju (Bola Tinubu) has control of more than 10 states in the South, in a conservative estimate, and I believe he has control of more than 10 states in the North. This is calculation; it is not rocket science," he added.
Yari also addressed the personal dimension of the rivalry, saying Tinubu had previously supported both Atiku and Obi at different points in their political careers. "If Allah uses me to support you, there is no way Allah will use you to bring me down. I mean, they cannot bring him down," he said.
Campaign Strategy and Record
The former governor added that the APC intends to campaign on the President's record in office rather than on promises alone. The meeting at the State House also produced an agreed timetable for state visits, which will guide the campaign's outreach ahead of the 2027 polls.
