Lagos 2027: How Mandate Group Crisis Favours Hamzat's Bid
As the Lagos State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) prepares for its primaries to select the candidate for the 2027 gubernatorial election, three prominent names are emerging in early calculations: Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat, former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode, and Senator Tokunbo Abiru. However, internal divisions within the Mandate Group are providing Hamzat with a significant strategic advantage, according to political analysts and party insiders.
Intensified Political Activities Ahead of Primaries
Ahead of the May 18, 2026, governorship primaries, political activities have intensified nationwide, with aspirants positioning themselves for party tickets. This period is shaping up to be a defining moment for the APC's internal power dynamics. Across several states, alignments are crystallising, calculations are sharpening, and the political field is gradually narrowing, effectively separating serious contenders from fringe aspirants.
While some states, such as Ogun, have settled for consensus arrangements—with party leaders rallying behind Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola—Lagos remains a theatre of complex negotiations, subtle intrigues, and strategic realignments. Early claims of a consensus candidate in Lagos were quickly dismissed by key stakeholders within the Mandate Group and some aspirants, who labelled the reports as premature "name-dropping" and insisted no such agreement had been reached.
Hamzat's Growing Traction and Strategic Advantage
At the centre of the unfolding contest is incumbent Deputy Governor Dr. Obafemi Hamzat, whose candidacy has steadily gained traction within influential party circles. While some insiders maintain that President Bola Tinubu and the influential Governance Advisory Council (GAC) have endorsed Hamzat, others counter that his support base is largely anchored within the Justice Forum, a dominant political bloc in Lagos APC led by Prince Tajudeen Olusi.
Despite conflicting narratives, there is a growing consensus among party observers that Hamzat currently enjoys a strategic advantage. Sources within the party suggest that, beyond the Justice Forum's backing, a faction of the Mandate Group led by Abdullahi Enilolobo has also aligned with his ambition. Additionally, a significant number of party stakeholders not formally tied to either of the two major blocs are said to be quietly rallying behind him.
Historical Role of Political Blocs in Lagos Politics
To understand the dynamics at play, analysts point to the historical role of political blocs in shaping Lagos politics. Since the return to democratic rule in 1999, two dominant structures—the Justice Forum and the Mandate Group—have functioned as the principal platforms through which political power is negotiated and distributed within the state. These blocs have influenced candidate selection and served as critical pipelines for securing endorsements from the party's apex leadership, particularly Tinubu, widely regarded as the central figure in Lagos APC politics.
Traditionally, aspirants must secure the backing of at least one of these blocs to stand a realistic chance. However, recent developments indicate a significant shift in this long-standing balance, with the Mandate Group's decline and the Justice Forum's resurgence.
Mandate Group's Decline and Internal Divisions
For years, the Mandate Group held considerable sway under leaders like former Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola and the late Senator Adebayo Osinowo, exercising substantial control over political structures, especially in Lagos West Senatorial District. However, Aregbesola's fallout with Tinubu and Osinowo's death left a leadership vacuum, weakening the bloc's cohesion and bargaining power.
Efforts to reconstitute leadership have deepened internal divisions, with a power tussle between Enilolobo and Lagos State House of Assembly Speaker Mudashiru Obasa leading to factionalisation. The involvement of key figures like Chief of Staff Tayo Ayinde further complicated matters, eroding the group's once formidable influence. This fragmentation became visible during recent local government elections and appointments, where the Justice Forum dominated, reinforcing perceptions of the Mandate Group's diminished grip.
Hamzat's Advantage in Evolving Power Dynamics
Against this backdrop, Hamzat's candidacy appears to benefit from the evolving power dynamics. With the Justice Forum firmly in his corner and the Mandate Group weakened by internal discord, there is currently no equally cohesive structure positioned to challenge his emergence. Party insiders describe the situation as one where Hamzat is "almost running unopposed," not due to the absence of other aspirants but because of the lack of a strong, united bloc capable of mounting an effective counterweight.
"This is about structure and organisation," a party source said. "At the moment, the Justice Forum is the only bloc that can confidently claim it has the machinery to deliver. The Mandate Group is divided, and that has consequences." Another source pointed to unexpected setbacks in Lagos West Senatorial District during the last general elections, raising questions about the effectiveness of existing structures and shaping current decisions.
Potential Challenges and Final Considerations
Despite the apparent momentum behind Hamzat, observers caution that the final outcome may still depend on President Tinubu's position. Historically, Tinubu has respected the preferences of dominant party blocs but has intervened when necessary. In the current scenario, analysts note that a strong alternative bloc is largely absent, reducing the likelihood of a counterforce.
Within the Mandate Group, some aspirants are reportedly reassessing their positions, with one prominent figure opting not to resign from an appointive position, interpreted as waning confidence. Efforts to promote former Governor Ambode's return have stalled due to lack of unity, and concerns about religious dynamics and term limits may affect his candidacy. For Senator Abiru, there are worries about term implications potentially affecting succession plans.
For Hamzat, this marks his third attempt at securing the APC governorship ticket, having previously lost to Ambode and later becoming deputy governor. Now, with shifting alliances and favourable political forces, he appears closer than ever to clinching the ticket. However, seasoned observers warn that Lagos's political terrain is unpredictable, with last-minute shifts capable of altering outcomes. Factors like potential schemes involving Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu's resignation could also influence the race.
For now, the balance appears tilted in Hamzat's favour, but as the countdown to May 18 reaches its climax, the final decision will become clearer. The National Chairman of the APC, Nentawe Yilwatda, has disclosed that President Tinubu directed party members to vote for their choice when consensus fails, and Lagos APC Chairman Pastor Cornelius Ojelabi has denied any endorsement from the party hierarchy or presidency, keeping the race open.
