The political landscape for Nigeria's 2027 general elections is already heating up, with a prominent analyst forecasting significant internal drama within the African Democratic Congress (ADC). This follows the high-profile defection of former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, to the coalition party.
Internal Power Struggle Looms for ADC
In an exclusive interview with Legit.ng, Atoyebi Paul, a chieftain of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), outlined two major conflicts he expects to unfold within the ADC ahead of the party's primaries. The first centres on the presidential ticket itself.
Paul noted that a significant portion of Peter Obi's supporters, known as the Obidient Movement, are adamant that their principal should not accept anything less than the ADC's presidential nomination. This stance is predicted to set the stage for a fierce social media battle between Obi's camp and that of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who is also a key figure in the coalition movement.
The analyst described the potential contenders within the ADC as "greedy politicians who are all about themselves," suggesting that their individual ambitions will prevent any easy consensus or sacrifice for the party's collective good.
Projected Scenarios and a Daunting Challenge
The second drama projected involves Peter Obi's potential strategy. Paul suggested that Obi might withdraw from the primary race if he senses he cannot secure the ticket, opting instead to negotiate for the vice presidential slot to avoid a political defeat. He added that many in the Obidient Movement lack the political maturity to accept such a compromise, which would further fuel discontent.
However, Paul delivered a stark ultimate prediction for the ADC's 2027 chances. Regardless of whether Peter Obi or Atiku Abubakar emerges as the party's flagbearer, he believes neither can defeat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, whom he sees as securing a second term.
"All the political permutations favour him," Paul stated, advising opposition figures to instead focus their efforts on the 2031 election cycle. He praised Tinubu's long-term political strategy, citing his historical role in helping others, like Nuhu Ribadu, Atiku Abubakar, and the late President Muhammadu Buhari, achieve the presidency before claiming it for himself.
Defection Alters the 2027 Calculus
Peter Obi's move to the ADC, which was initially boosted by Atiku Abubakar's coalition efforts, has been marked as a defining moment for the opposition. While it consolidates significant anti-APC sentiment into one party, it also introduces new risks and internal complexities.
The analyst's comments underscore the precarious path ahead for the ADC. The party must first navigate a likely bruising internal selection process between its heavyweight members, all while facing the formidable electoral machinery of the incumbent APC. The coming months will reveal whether the coalition can unite behind a single candidate or succumb to the predicted infighting, shaping the opposition's viability for the 2027 presidential race.
