The Oxford–Metro Analytics National Trust Poll, which closed on September 7, has placed President Bola Tinubu ahead of Labour Party's Peter Obi and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar in a hypothetical 2027 presidential contest. The poll, which gathered 69,110 approved responses, gave Tinubu 35.41% of the total, Obi 33.86%, and Atiku 26.67%.
Poll Results and Margins
Tinubu drew 24,469 responses, while Obi received 23,402, a margin of 1,067 responses. Atiku came third with 18,430 responses. The poll's final dataset excluded 56 diaspora responses from the six domestic regional tallies.
Beyond the top three, Omoyele Sowore received 1,016 responses, Seyi Makinde got 519, and former President Goodluck Jonathan received 284. Smaller figures included Anita Zugwai-Chukwu with 18 responses, Sandy Onor with six, and Prince Kennedy Ahanotu with two. Another 638 participants chose "I Do Not Trust Any Candidate Yet," 204 were undecided, and 122 selected "Other Candidate."
Regional Breakdown and Shifts
The poll's geographical spread showed a different picture from the 2023 election. Tinubu, who won 12 states in 2023, led in 20 states and the Federal Capital Territory in this survey. Obi and Atiku each recorded the highest response counts in eight states apiece.
At the zonal level, Tinubu led in the South-West, North-West, and North-Central. His South-West tally stood at 10,968 responses (43.53% of the zone's participation), 4,129 in the North-West (43.10%), and 6,370 in the North-Central (36.97%). Obi's clearest lead came from the South-East, where he pulled in 5,796 responses (63.97%), and he also led the South-South with 2,389 responses (41.48%). Atiku dominated the North-East with 1,235 responses (55.46%).
Notable northern states that had backed Atiku in 2023, including Kaduna, Katsina, and Gombe, showed Tinubu leading in this poll. He also led in Kano, where NNPP candidate Rabiu Kwankwaso had won the presidential vote in 2023.
Key State Results and Participation Concentration
In the FCT, Tinubu secured 5,599 responses against Obi's 5,278, with Atiku receiving 3,954. In Rivers State, Tinubu polled 975 responses compared to Obi's 892, leaving an 83-response gap. In Kogi, only 110 total responses were recorded, with Tinubu receiving 39, Atiku 38, and Obi 33.
The poll noted that Lagos and the FCT together accounted for 54.44% of all responses, indicating a significant geographical concentration of participation.
Atiku's Camp Criticism
Legit.ng earlier reported that ADC chieftain Kenneth Okonkwo criticised President Tinubu for defending INEC over bias allegations, saying the electoral body had not earned public confidence. Okonkwo, who speaks for Atiku Abubakar ahead of 2027, cited concerns over security and governance as reasons Tinubu may struggle to win re-election. The ADC spokesperson also accused the ruling APC of attempting to weaken opposition parties and undermine Nigeria's democratic process before 2027.
