Nigeria's federal budgeting process, once considered a cornerstone of national planning, has descended into a cycle of disorder and fiscal illusion. This alarming trend is fueled by what analysts describe as entrenched fiscal rascality, enabled by a weak and compromised National Assembly.
A Parliament Compromised, A Process Broken
At the heart of the crisis is a parliament accused of indulging practices that rob citizens of the benefits of public spending. The national budget, a document meant to inspire public trust, has been downgraded to a rolling script of optimistic assumptions and politically convenient alterations. Its implementation remains half-hearted, leaving public finances exposed to shocks and arbitrariness.
While other nations test their budget parameters rigorously, Nigeria's estimates resemble the speculative bets of asset traders, undermining the seriousness of national financial planning. As the country reels from this broken system, President Bola Tinubu is pushing two critical documents through the legislature: the 2026-2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework/Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP) and the 2026 appropriation bill.
Overlapping Budgets and Official Contradictions
In a move that has compounded confusion, President Tinubu requested a "repeal/re-enactment" of the 2024 and 2025 appropriation acts on December 16. This unprecedented demand seeks to reactivate two non-performing budgets concurrently. While framed as a measure to end overlapping budgets, critics argue it legitimizes the very problem it claims to solve and creates more room for official manipulation.
The performance of these budgets reveals deep flaws. The 2024 budget, with a life stretched across two years, achieved only 80% revenue performance. More critically, its capital expenditure underperformed by a staggering 54%, leaving a N7.4 trillion hole from the appropriated N13.77 trillion. The 2025 budget appears no better, with only N3.1 trillion (17%) of its capital expenditure target released by the end of the third quarter.
Contradictions abound within the government's own reporting. Finance Minister Wale Edun disclosed a N30 trillion shortfall (74%) on the N40.8 trillion 2025 revenue target. Yet, President Tinubu reported N18.6 trillion in revenue by the third quarter, highlighting a troubling lack of cohesive data.
Unrealistic Assumptions and a Debt Trap
The newly presented N58.1 trillion 2026 budget is built on what experts call fragile and spurious assumptions. Despite Nigeria's struggle to meet its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day, the government is banking on a daily production target of 1.84 mbpd next year. It also retains an oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, a significant premium on current OPEC basket prices.
This optimism is historically unfounded. During the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari, the variance between projected and actual revenue was as wide as over 40% in some years. The 2026 draft continues this pattern, projecting a N34.33 trillion revenue target—an over 40% markup on this year's annualized earnings.
The consequences are severe. The budget plans a deficit of N23.85 trillion, over four percent of GDP, signaling heavy borrowing. Furthermore, a colossal N15.52 trillion (26.7% of the budget) is allocated to debt servicing—a commitment that exceeds combined spending on critical growth and social investment sectors.
This cycle of fiscal indiscipline, enabled by a pliant legislature, continues to corrode Nigeria's economy. The budget has transformed from an instrument of planning into an article of trade, advancing the interests of politicians while the common good suffers. Without a return to empirical planning and legislative rigor, the nation's financial stability remains in peril.
